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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (26740)	2/18/2005 10:41:16 PM
From: regli	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I quite like the way you put it. Here in support of your post a little excerpt from the Bob Hoye interview with J. Taylor. TAYLOR: Let me understand. As prices drop, the loan officers and margin clerks at brokerage houses and in banks begin to worry that their clients won’t be able to repay their loans, so they ask for more and more margin—which then triggers further liquidation because people have to sell non essential items to raise cash to meet margin requirements. That then results in a collapse in the value of less liquid assets relative to cash and the ultimate liquidity, namely gold? HOYE: That’s happened many times but, at the top, the street ardently believes that “this time it’s different.” institutionaladvisors.com

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (26740)	2/19/2005 1:22:47 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

not simple at all "the value of gold is purely based on the amount of money borrowed against it and the value of the currency of that debt very simple" it is enormously complex when the counterfeit operation for the USDollar currency has a parallel counterfeit process whereby gold is sold in paper-based futures what is the value of the true arbiter gold when it too has contamination ??? seriously, absolutely nothing in the history of money has EVER been more complex as modernday gold and money, and not simple yours seems like a perspective which could render you broke and busted but correct years down the road beware of complexity also, here is more complexity the monetary expansion in this reflation period has NEVER been more improperly devoted within the economy it has gone to added debt all over the spectrum the likelihood of defaults and failures grows constantly if bigtime accidents start to happen, gold might be sold to pay for debts on assets which owners wish not to be dissolved of somehow I suspect few analysts or smart gold enthusiasts are fully aware of the curve ball risks inherent to Kondratiev Winter cycles we have imminent debt collapse combined with Asian over-production and export internationally that is the worst of both worlds in extreme K-Winter style, from a Western perspective but then again, the Western world (with USA as epicenter) is the grandest abuser of debt the simpler you make it, the less successful you will be in playing the "great game", which requires work and constant vigilance after the losses comes an assessment of what went wrong it usually involves failure to recognize complexity and risk good luck / jim