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Gold/Mining/Energy : PEAK OIL - The New Y2K or The Beginning of the Real End? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (103)	2/20/2005 7:06:12 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1183

a whole lot of behind-the-scenes manipulation and chicanery played out when the Texas Railroad Commission granted 100% production rates to all producers..... the TRC was simply declaring that the Lower 48 was no longer able to set prices at the margin. this paved the way for OPEC, which itself was modeled on the TRC, to produce the world's marginal barrel. But we were never at any real risk of running out of gasoline. The public was told that, and they swallowed it. if you think, by extension, that Peak Oil today is just a Vast Right Wing Conspiracy, you might want to check out some of the online resources cited in the thread header, or read some books by people like Deffeyes, Heinberg, etc.

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (103)	2/20/2005 12:18:01 PM
From: kryptonic6	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1183

"The age of constantly increasing energy availability (and thus our growth-based economic system) literally ends the day the peak oil event occurs." This is true. The AGE of constantly increasing energy availability does indeed end the day oil production peaks. After we peak, no matter how hard we pump, production cannot be physically increased to meet demand. Thus, the age/era of our growth-based economic system must also end very soon after we peak, since economic growth is impossible without increasing energy availability. This is NOT to say that society collapses the day after we peak. Again, I think we are on the same page here. Jesse

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (103)	2/20/2005 3:04:04 PM
From: Triffin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1183

As stated in the thread header .. Let's keep it focused on PEAK OIL and investment Price stability ensues when global production and global demand are in equilibrium .. Current global demand figures I've seen indicate 80 mbpd ( million barrels per day ) rising to 120 mbpd by 2025 .. Maybe we won't be able to produce the upper amount ?? It would be of interest to determine .. current global production ( at the well head ) capacity current global tanker ( dirty ) capacity ie crude current global pipeline capacity current global refining capacity current global tanker ( clean ) capacity ie products I would assume that each segment above has a current capacity in excess of current demand of 80 mbpd .. Recent legislation has mandated that the world's tanker fleet upgrade to double hulled tonnage and I assume that this process has in part fueled the recent run-up in rates that tanker owners have been enjoying as older vessels are scrapped and new-buildings are delivered .. I also keep hearing that we need to construct new refining capacity and the current infrastructure buildout for LNG terminaling facilities .. Are there any other potential capacity constraining segments in this sector that would merit our interest for investment ???? Triff ..