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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: E_K_S who wrote (20710)2/20/2005 9:47:08 PM
From: Kevyn Collins-Thompson  Respond to of 78740
 
Re: oil and oil service stocks

I own tanker stock, specifically TRMD which is an ADR for a very nicely run Danish company TORM. (The Copenhagen exchange is the other one carrying the company's stock.) Like many other tanker stocks recently, TRMD has had a spectacular run in the last two years. (The Yahoo data is wrong: the plunge to half-price is actually a 2:1 split that Yahoo hasn't registered correctly.) However, I still think the company is a good deal as they continue to grow their fleet. Not all their biz is oil tankers, which I like: dry good shipping also, and pooling services.

For oil, I know almost nothing, so thanks to all the people posting stuff in that area here. I have been combining speculative high-dividend royalty trusts like Petrofund Energy Trust (PTF) with various more complex options hedges. But this is more of an experiment in leverage, and requires too much attention so I'm looking for more solid ground. The Brazil PBR play sounds reasonable. A lesser-known possibility may be Indonesia - which I feel more comfortable with since I've lived there - or Malaysia - if I find anything worthwhile looking I'll post.

Cheers,
Kevyn



To: E_K_S who wrote (20710)2/20/2005 10:56:24 PM
From: Paul Senior  Respond to of 78740
 
E_K_S. I have to defer to others as regards ideas about candidates that either provide services or sell to the oil sector. I still have DNR from '01 (large supplier of CO2 used in tertiary oil recovery), but I can't suggest it as a buy now.
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I've never considered how I allocate funds between regional and money center banks. Maybe I should. I seem to have some difficulty even in categorizing some "banks" as banks. Bank of NY for example. For the various positions I have here, I just picked the stocks when the stocks seemed low enough and business prospects seemed okay enough. Right now, I'm looking at AmSouth (ASO; I like the dividend being raised every year w/current yield now about 4%) and Dale Baker's pick of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial (MTF). Neither appears as a great bargain to me though; I'll likely pass. May just continue to build tiny JPM position.

If you've not seen it, for some ideas - and fwiw - here's S&P's bank analyst commentary in BusinessWeek recently:

yahoo.businessweek.com

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I'll pass on MMM. I'm not capable of quantiying value of MMM divisions; I'd only be interested in the stock when the company looked cheap based on historical p/e, p/sales, etc. I suspect if that day comes, with MMM being a large weighting in the DOW (is that not correct?), the entire market (DOW certainly (??) would be off quite a bit, and there'd be bargains aplenty in the market.

I don't follow GP. As regards paper (one aspect of GP's business), I have IP on my watch list - sorry I didn't take an exploratory position when stock was a bit lower recently. As regards GP as a materials supplier to homebuilding industry, I have other stocks there that I'm following.

All jmo, and I could be very wrong.