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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (60493)	2/22/2005 1:46:32 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, <Continuing in this way, US will lose more factories, along with Japan, but both plus China will have an improved lifestyle of less expensive DVD machines and Lexus SUVs, until not, I guess. Win win and win, or not.> Yes, as long as the US and other Western nations, with their embedded costs of ergonomics (this word exists in China?), unemployment insurance, worker's rights, continue to use their wealth to buy products from workers who have no ergonomics and related costs, there will continue to be a permanent shift. Ergonomics and the like act as a tax and therefore China's input of labor, because it is 'free' of this tax, shall always be more competitive. Therefore, as the shift becomes more unbearable, protectionism will increase. This is what is meant by 'American values'. Perhaps this is the only solution. <pushing Japan to intervene> Well even Japan has been beaten at its own game, for what they did to America China is now doing to them. Eventually Chinese domestic demand will be strong enough to be self-sustaining, but they will need raw materials. How America, with its ergonomics taxes and the like, ever expects to compete for the world's resources against China, is beyond me. China will have more margin on the same product, and can pay more for materials. Can Japan print more Yen? The last round was a failure. D

To: TobagoJack who wrote (60493)	2/22/2005 1:49:52 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

This is not allowed to happen. "Slowdown Indicated For China's Economy". We need every Chinese with a car in the garage and a chicken in the pot! We need kids eating chocolate. Youngs drinking orange juice and older folks drinking coffee. If they do that, the other 1.3 billion (the Hindus) will! :-) Slowdown Indicated For China's Economy By Peter S. Goodman Washington Post Foreign Service Tuesday, February 22, 2005; Page E01 BEIJING, Feb. 21 -- China's producer prices last month climbed by the smallest margin in almost a year, the government announced Monday, adding to the widespread view that the nation's campaign to rein in economic growth by limiting investment is gradually working and will avert a crash. January's 5.8 percent increase in producer prices compared with a year earlier comes on the heels of a 7.1 percent increase in December. Economists said the slowing trend adds to the likelihood that China will successfully nudge down the pace of growth in its booming economy through credit-tightening without suffering a "hard landing" -- an abrupt halt that could shutter businesses, destroy jobs and leave banks burdened with fresh billions in bad loans. The slowing also suggests that China's central bank is less likely to raise interest rates anew after lifting them in October for the first time in nearly a decade. That move sowed fear in markets around the globe. Traders read it as the beginning of a round of belt-tightening that would significantly diminish China's voracious appetite for goods, particularly commodities -- such as iron ore pouring into Chinese ports from Brazil and Australia and soybeans shipped from the United States and Argentina. "Price pressures are coming off," said Jonathan Anderson, chief economist at UBS Investment Research in Hong Kong, who has long argued that China is in the midst of successfully engineering a soft landing, a gradual slowdown free of crisis. "What it really means is they are not going to be tempted to do anything wacky in terms of raising interest rates." Monday's producer price figures landed two weeks after China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, said borrowing costs were at a "comfortable" level. Only a few months ago, some economists fretted that China might not be able to bring its sizzling economy under heel. In that view, a glut of unneeded office space and unwanted production could have given way to rapidly falling prices, leading to bankruptcies and a potential banking crisis whose consequences might have rippled out around the globe. These days, most fears focus on the consequences of the opposite outcome -- the impact a slowdown in China would have on exporters that have become dependent on Chinese demand for their goods. The slowdown in China's growth and the weakening demand for raw materials such as steel, for example, is blamed in part for Japan's recent return to recession. But even that story now seems under control. "The bad news is already priced into the market," Anderson said. By themselves, the January numbers are a mere increment in the still unfolding story of China's efforts to crimp the flow of new capital to hot-growing areas of the economy, particularly steel, automaking and real estate. Analysts emphasized that January data tend to be skewed by the run-up to the Lunar New Year, when many people begin to travel to spend the holiday with their families. They will be scouring the data in coming months for confirmation of the growing consensus that the economy is indeed cooling to a sustainable pace. Of particular interest is the growth of investment in government-led public-works projects, which have long been the engine of the world's largest country. The January producer price data fit into a recent pattern that has convinced most economists that a gradual slowdown is already underway. In April, Premier Wen Jiabao began sounding the alarm that an overly exuberant flood of capital into car plants and skyscrapers was in danger of creating a bubble that could leave China's already troubled banks with a greater toll of bad loans. Investment into large projects in Chinese cities was then growing by 35 percent compared with a year earlier. In December, growth of such projects had slowed to 21 percent, the government said. Last week, the government reported that China's industrial production rose by 8.9 percent in January compared with a year earlier -- the smallest increase in three years. On Tuesday, the government released figures showing that consumer prices rose by 1.9 percent in January -- a narrower increase than economists had been expecting and the smallest rise in nearly a year. "It's a good sign," said Larry H.P. Lang, chairman of the finance department at Chinese University of Hong Kong and host of a popular business talk show in Shanghai. "The government was worried before, but things are getting better and better."

To: TobagoJack who wrote (60493)	2/22/2005 9:56:24 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Brazil Prevents Hiring of Locals as Mercenaries in Iraq Brasilia, Feb 22 (Prensa Latina) Brazil has bannedd the hiring of locals as mercenaries to aid occupation troops in Iraq. The Sao Paulo Attorney General´s Office established as illegal the behavior of German subject Frank Guenter Salewski and the Body Guard Company, which were hiring army and reserve forces to work in Iraq, according to reports made public on Tuesday. Those found guilty of this practice will now be fined with 10,000 reales ($3,700) per each mercenary hired, as ruled last week in Paraná state. Sao Paulo legal representatives said investigations regarding this case have not finished yet because other companies will be summoned for questioning. The hiring of mercenaries to protect the US facilities and troops in Iraq was revealed by media sources early February. Reports unearthed that some 500 had already been recruited, and it was planned to use a Brazilian army area to train them. The administration of President George W. Bush is having trouble hiring US citizens to work in Iraq, thus the search for an alternative work force, mainly in Latin America. plenglish.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (60493)	2/22/2005 5:06:35 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, BOK announces they'll change reserves structure (ie disgorge USD) As I posted on another board: When Korea decides to dump USD basically they are deciding to revalue (in USD) in advance of any Yuan revaluation. I wonder if other Asian nations will stay the course or begin to revalue (dump USD) also. Japan has been hoarding to stay competitive. I wonder what happens to the Korean economy's competitiveness. If they disgorge dollars and drive US bond yields up, Americans will have less money to buy their Kias, Hyundais and Samsungs. That's a real double-whammy. Combine that with the price of oil increasing and the tightening on one of their largest customers is impressive. Then again maybe they need to buy some US arms for protection against Evil Kim and wanted a discount? More importantly, do you think the BOK shorted USD last week? D