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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (24065)	2/22/2005 1:29:48 AM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Copper Falls From 16-Year High in London; China Supply Rises Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell from a 16-year high in London after stockpiles rose in China, the world's largest user of the metal used in electrical wire and plumbing pipes, and the dollar halted its slide against the euro. Deliverable supplies for the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 12,088 metric tons, or 54 percent, to 34,430 tons in the week ended Feb. 17. More metal may be imported in the next few weeks in anticipation of higher demand in China. ``There are some stocks coming in, particularly ahead of March, which is usually the peak consumption period in China,'' said Gu Yuan, a metals trader at Shanghai Oriental Futures Co. Copper fell $11, or 0.3 percent, to $3,214 a metric ton at 4:24 p.m. in London, the first drop in three days. Buying by commodity funds last week pushed copper to $3,230 a metric ton on Feb. 18, the highest since March 1989. U.S. markets were closed today for the Presidents Day holiday. In China, copper for delivery in April was unchanged on the Shanghai Futures Exchange at 30,860 yuan ($3,730) a ton. The dollar was unchanged at $1.3072 against the euro after falling for five straight sessions to a four-week low, according to EBS, an electronic currency dealing system. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated metals cheaper to buy with other currencies and more attractive as alternative investments to U.S. stocks and bonds. Record Rise? Thirteen of 17 traders, analysts, investors and producers surveyed by Bloomberg News on Feb. 17 and Feb. 18 said copper will rise this week. Three forecast a drop and one little change. Prices may fall as investors sell contracts to lock in gains, Chile's state statistics agency Cochilco said in an e- mailed statement. Traders were looking forward to U.S. data on house sales, durable goods orders and economic growth for hints of copper demand, Cochilco said. Global demand will exceed production this year by 172,000 tons, Merrill Lynch & Co. forecast last week. Mining companies including Melbourne-based BHP Billiton, the world's biggest, and Phoenix-based Phelps Dodge Corp., the second-largest copper producer, are boosting output. China, the world's largest user, will need 8 percent more copper his year than in 2004, according to Merrill Lynch and London-based GFMS Metals Consulting. China is expanding its power grid, building apartments and offices, and manufacturing more vehicles that use copper. Lead for delivery in three months had the biggest drop on the LME, falling $13, or 1.3 percent, to $968 a ton. Aluminum fell $7, or 0.4 percent, to $1,928 and zinc slipped $5, or 0.4 percent, to $1,369. Nickel rose $75 to $15,700 and tin was up $75 to $8,375. bloomberg.com

To: RealMuLan who wrote (24065)	2/22/2005 1:51:26 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 116555

Dollar Declines on Report Korea to Diversify Currency Reserves Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell by a cent against the euro and dropped versus the yen on a report that South Korea's central bank will diversify its currency reserves. The central bank, which has $200 billion in reserves, will ``diversify the currencies in which it invests,'' Reuters said yesterday, citing a Bank of Korea spokesman in a parliamentary report. Byun Jai Yung, head of the bank's planning department, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview that he can't comment. ``Support for the dollar is quickly disappearing,'' said Kenichiro Ikezawa, who manages $1 billion in overseas debt at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo. ``This Korean story is having quite an impact because it feeds into suspicion that others are also seeking to cut their exposure to the dollar.'' The dollar fell against the euro to $1.3168 at 2:50 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3068 late yesterday in Toronto, according to EBS, an electronic foreign-exchange dealing system. The dollar fell to 104.69 yen from 105.54. U.S. markets were closed yesterday for a national holiday. The dollar may weaken to $1.32 per euro and 104.30 yen today, Ikezawa said. The U.S. currency is up 3.8 percent from a record low of $1.3666 versus the euro on Dec. 30. ``Korea is one the largest holders of foreign exchange reserves in the world, which means they will be able to buy more non-dollar currencies,'' said Greg Gibbs, a Sydney-based senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. South Korea has the world's fourth-largest reserves behind Japan, China and Taiwan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Bank of Korea is the fifth-biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries with $69 billion as of December last year, the most recent figures available, according to the Treasury Department. Japan, the largest, has $711.8 billion. `Sheer Size' The yen's gain accelerated after 105.40 per dollar, where pre-set orders to buy the Japanese currency were clustered, said Tsutomu Soma, a trader in Tokyo at Okasan Securities Co. The dollar's slide against the euro quickened after $1.31, where some investors placed similar orders, said Jake Moore, a strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. ``The sheer size of Korea's reserves makes it unignorable,'' said Tetsu Aikawa, currency sales manager in Tokyo at UFJ Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan's fourth-largest lender. ``That revives the memory in people's minds how badly the dollar was sold when Russia said it was diversifying.'' The U.S. currency may weaken to $1.32 per euro today, he said. Central Banks The dollar fell to a then record against the euro on Nov. 23 after Russia's central bank said it may increase the amount of euros in its reserves. The dollar fell as much as half a percent against the euro on Jan. 24, after a survey sponsored by Royal Bank of Scotland Plc showed central banks boosted euro holdings. Almost 70 percent of the 56 central banks surveyed said they increased exposure to the 12-nation currency, according to the survey conducted by Central Banking Publications Ltd., a London- based publisher, between September and December 2004. Fifty-two percent said they reduced exposure to the dollar. The yen's advance began earlier today on speculation Japan's economy will recover from its fourth recession since 1991. The U.S. currency also weakened versus the euro. Traders may renew bets on the yen after it retreated 3 percent from a five-year high of 101.69 on Jan. 17, said Sabrina Jacobs, a currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. Japan's trade surplus widened for a second month in January, a government report tomorrow may show. ``Investors are increasingly realizing that the second-half recession in 2004 was the low point in Japan and that it's most likely getting better,'' said Singapore-based Jacobs. ``That's helping the yen.'' Trade Surplus Japan's trade surplus probably grew to 508.5 billion yen ($4.84 billion) from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to release the report at 8:50 a.m. tomorrow in Tokyo. ``We're looking for some signs of improvement in Japanese exports,'' said Tomoko Fujii, a Tokyo-based foreign-exchange strategist at Citigroup Inc. A rising surplus ``will place upward pressure on the yen.'' Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Feb. 20 Japan's economy will ``improve in the latter half of this year.'' Growth shrank at an annualized pace of 0.5 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, a third straight quarterly contraction. quote.bloomberg.com