Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (101563)	2/22/2005 3:32:52 AM
From: KLP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793963

Hundreds killed in Iranian quake news.bbc.co.uk There are fears that many people are buried under rubble An earthquake has hit several villages in south-eastern Iran, killing at least 400 people and injuring hundreds more. The 6.4-magnitude quake was centred near Zarand in Kerman province, 740km (460 miles) from the capital, Tehran. The authorities say up to 70% of the buildings in six villages around Zarand have been damaged or destroyed They added that damage was limited because of the depth of the quake, which struck at about 0600 (0230 GMT), and the remoteness of the area hit. A spokesman for the governor's office in Zarand, which has a population of about 15,000 people, said they had identified and registered 137 bodies, but added that 400 people were known to have died so far. The head of Zarand hospital said 5,000 people were injured, but Iran's interior ministry says that will include people who received first aid for very minor injuries. Casualty figures are expected to rise as rescue workers reach badly affected villages. Aftershocks Two villages are said to have seen almost all of their buildings destroyed, Iranian television reports. The access road to one of the villages has been blocked by a landslide caused by the earthquake. In that village, which has a population of 1,500 people, there was a religious gathering under way at the time of the earthquake and it is feared many of those who took part may be buried under the rubble there, reports the BBC's Frances Harrison in Tehran. Eleven rescue teams have been sent to the area, including police, military and helicopters. The emergency services say it helped that they were already on alert because of heavy snow and rain in the country. The governor says communications have been affected in the area, but work to restore them is under way. Rain is hampering the rescue effort, along with very heavy traffic. People in the area have been asked to stay outdoors despite the heavy rain for fear of aftershocks and they have been told not to use mobile telephones except for emergencies. The interior ministry says there have already been 20 aftershocks. Gas has been shut off in the area as a precaution, and mud schools have been closed, with classes being held outdoors, our correspondent says. Earthquake prone The epicentre of the latest quake is about 200km (120 miles) north-west of Bam, where some 30,000 people were killed when a powerful earthquake levelled the historic city in 2003. Iran has at least a minor earthquake almost every day. The United Nations says Iran is the worst country in the world in terms of earthquakes. Seismologists say this is because Iran is at the confluence of three of the Earth's plates and is literally being squeezed by them.

To: LindyBill who wrote (101563)	2/22/2005 3:47:57 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793963

Kudlow's Money Politic$ Pro-growth, strong defense, virtuous values, business, and stocks 2.21.2005 Economy Revisited I haven't blogged during the long holiday weekend, but here are a few brief thoughts on the economy and the markets. ***************************************************************************** Citing strong profits,cash flows, and returns on equity, star money manager Bill Miller of Legg Mason is bullish on stocks for 2005.Mr. Miller has outperformed the S&P 500 index fourteen straight years. He is one of the best thinkers in the business. He is quoted in an AP story I found in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: " Valuations are not demanding, especially in a world of low inflation and low interest rates. Mergers and aquisitions should boom this year, providing windfalls for the shareholders of takeover targets." I agree. Even after the much higher than expected producer price report, core inflation for the personal spending deflator watched closely by Greenspan should remain historically low. In that PPI report,it was capital goods prices-- comprising 42% of the core PPI-- that really pushed up the basic index. This included outsized price jumps for railroad equipment, oil and gas equipment and mining machinery. But this is a healthy sign that the tradeable hard goods sector, long ignored during the hi-tech boom, is returning to strength. Capacity is being enlarged to accommodate growing world demands. Higher prices and profits are attracting new capital. Soon increased production supplies will lower prices.It's part of the market process, a microeconomic application. Freely rising prices attract investment. That investment leads to more output. As supply then rises to meet demand, free prices decline back to a sustainably balanced level. Markets work. Business works. Investment works. So does our flexible economy, which quickly moves capital and labor to their most productive uses. Contrast this with over-taxed and over-regulated Europe and Japan, which lack the market flexibility to respond to changing conditions. This is why America is growing rapidly and the others are not. But capital goods investment should not be confused with persistent inflation. That can only occur with excess money creation extending well beyond the markets' demand for that new money. Slower monetary base growth in the wake of Fed restaining moves is a positive sign for lower future inflation. Gold and the dollar are stabilizing. Treasury bond yields are low and the Treasury curve has been flattening over the past year. Bond rates and core inflation may drift slightly higher in the months ahead, but this will not be an obstacle to economic growth or stock market advances. **************************************************************************** Standard and Poor's research expects another record year for dividends in 2005 as payouts to investors increase 12% to $203 billion compared to $181 billion in 2004. Meanwhile dividend paying shares continue to outperform nonpayers. Over the past year the former rose an average of 0.64% while the latter fell by an average of 5.01%. After a 29% increase in 2003, the S&P 500 index rose nearly 11% in 2004. Sceptics will never admit it, but the 15% marginal tax-rate on investor dividends (from 40% earlier) had an awful lot to do with these positive results. The after-tax cost of capital was significantly reduced while the post-tax return to investment was significantly raised. So? More dividends and more investment followed suit. Tax capital less, you get more of it. The entire economy doubled its growth since the Bush tax reform was implemented in mid-2003. Meanwhile, these supply-side tax cuts are paying for themselves. The Congressional Budget Office admitted as much in their winter report. Taxing investor dividends and capital gains at lower rates is reducing the budget deficit (and growing the economy). The Laffer curve strikes again. **************************************************************************** Here's a neat bit of economic history. Since 1800, the ten-year Treasury bond yield has averaged 4.9%. The CPI has averaged 2%. The Fed's policy rate has averaged 4%. This from one of Wall Street's best and brightest economists, Michael Darda. Mr. Darda expects bonds, inflation and the Fed rate to move back to their long-run equilibrium averages over the next year or so. If so, it would be very healthy. And consistent with roughly 3.5% inflation-adjusted economic growth. If my memory serves me, Penn Prof. Jeremy Siegel found that inflation-adjusted stock returns averaged 7% since 1802. Aren't these long-run performance data for stocks and the economy exactly why individuals should have the option to own and invest a portion of their Social Security taxes?