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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (60534)	2/23/2005 6:31:19 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<World seems to be realizing the Saudi Arabia may have overproduced, and may already past peak oil> Hi EP! Could you elaborate, please on that, or give any sources? I was here in Nigeria 22 years ago. Then it was said oil would last thirty years more. Nigeria has cheated in its oil quota since the quota system was established and today I'm here and the oil is still gushing. Could it be that saying oil reserves in a given area is dwindling is wayo? Or a way to increase the value of reserves elsewhere? Cheers Elmat

To: energyplay who wrote (60534)	2/23/2005 2:41:17 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

EP, I have been taking profits, moving to cash. My portfolio is primarily these themes: 1. oil sands 2. uranium 3. PMs 4. bear funds/puts I have a small position in FDG left but I generally am not enthralled with coal. There is a great deal of coal on the planet and as new production is coming onstream quickly now, I am worried about pricing going forward. I have taken some profits in the oil sands (CLL, OST, UTS) and am looking for an inflection point so I can add WTO.TO. I still own CLL, UTS, PBG, OST, COS, DCE, CWPC and OPC I like crossover uranium and gold plays like Aflease, FRG.TO. I think the uranium story in general is more compelling than coal. In PMs, I added some DNT.TO recently. I have been selling CDN oil and gas juniors. Some have been dropping in price after announcements of trust conversions (LEL.TO) and some have been flat after being mentioned on ROBTV with decent targets that would have moved share prices a few months ago (TUI) and FLO was purchased by DAY.UN for less than the trading price. If these clues aren't wakeup signs to overvaluation, I don't know what is. So, I sold my Canadian juniors except TGA, APX.V. I also have CNR, TMXN.OB and PYR. Internationally I have DTNOF.PK. I took profits on some EN.TO that I bought at the IPO. The move by the S. Koreans to restructure their reserves and by India to use reserves for infrastructure projects may be the start of a trend (no CB wants to be last). The cracks in the foundation are appearing. Divesting USD will push up bond yields, and there goes the housing market and the US consumer. I am not sure what that means for the dollar longer-term, though, as attractive yields will draw investment when places like BOC (Canada) are on hold trying to keep their manufacturing sector competitive. The entire commodity sector is looking a bit tired now after quite a few big moves since the start of the year. David