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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roebear who wrote (21964)	2/24/2005 11:57:01 AM
From: rails99	Respond to of 108758

Hello Roebear: Sent you a PM. Official plan for Rails: Re.: DROOY- To buy in three different lots. First will be today when the volume slows a bit. OT: Hope the people here have prosporous year Sincerely; Rails

To: Roebear who wrote (21964)	2/24/2005 4:00:18 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 108758

re:DROOY- "Welcome to the Valley of Death's Shadow chapter of the Knife Catchers" Per my earlier posts; I was hoping to get a "one day - high volume classic blow off" in the HUI in this recent pullback. We didn't get the one day meltdown... but, we got to HUI 190 on a HUI 185ish target. I got most of my 1st & some of my 2nd 1/3rd allocation fills on most stocks... not all I had hoped, or wanted to buy... but, patience & discipline and staying with a plan become more important as a cycle matures...ie: Rising Risk - Declining Reward ratio's. It all depends on perspective. The HUI just gave us a nice buying opp on this recent pullback. The recent HUI pullback was Good News if you we're re-entering, or adding as a planned buyer. Bad News... if you we're riding the HUI down from 250 and became a forced seller. - all a matter of perspective. No different with DROOY today. Depends if you are a buyer with a plan...averaging back in. Or, a forced seller - who's riden it all the way back down without one (a plan). I didn't quite understand all of the daytrader-esque dancing in & out on .05 & .08 cent moves of late in DROOY...but, to say the least....today certainly separated the buyers from the sellers. - shouldn't be anyone left straddlin' the fence on DROOY after today (vbg). DROOY should be a small part of a So African basket here...which in turn; should be a small part of an over-all Gold/PM portfolio. I don't think it was much of a mystery to many here (hopefully so anyway...) that the So African Golds were getting pounded, were "THE" out of favor sub-sector within Goldstocks... and "why". The "why" is the key... and the "why" probably determined whether you were a planned buyer, or a forced seller today. Whether DROOY doubles, or goes to zero; hopefully shouldn't be making, or breaking anyone's bank...given it's one stock in the South African sector...which is part of the broader Gold/PM basket...which in turn, is just one part of one's portfolio. It is & has always been; priced and viewed as an "option" on Gold... and that's how it should be owned. It's always been one of the most high risk stocks in the sector and always one of the most volatile....and today that was an understatement. If you were a forced seller today - you probably puked around lunchtime. If you were a planned buyer...you got to buy a little weakness (can you say - 1 day High Volume Blow off (VBG) and a "little" lower today at lunchtime... and even had the option of flippin' a little back right here intra-day if you wish... for a nice little daytrade. You're smilin` today if you woke up a planned buyer. You're probably pukin` today... if you weren't. Those looking for a re-entry opp got it. Those looking for an exit...probably got it as well. - all a matter of perspective (vbg). But, the real story today isn't about DROOY... it's a much bigger picture - story. This isn't a story so much about DROOY - but, rather a story about Rand Policy, Black Empowerment, the South African National Asset of Commodities & it's Mining Industry that makes South Africa's Economy and it's Currency what it is... This story and this "play" is much bigger than DROOY itself. If DROOY must become the sacrificial lamb... so be it. An inevitable price that "someone" is going to possibly ultimately pay... to lever RAND policy change.... when, not if. Each South African miner... supports 10+ people on average in South Africa. A little more socio-economic political leverage when a South African Gold Mine get's shut down, or put on maintenance and a miner get's laid off... than when an American Auto Worker get's laid off for instance. DROOY will obviously be forced to accelerate their decision making on management options....just as South African Socio-Economic debate on Rand Policy will get accelerated...when, not if. Dilution...no surprise. Can spin off non-South African properties as spoken about earlier, can hedge currency, obviously can and will close mines & lay off miners... which brings the socio-economic pressure of So Africa's RAND policy to the forefront... when, not if - it changes. When it does, the So African Golds are cheap and are levered. I don't spend too much time worrying about cat-calls from the under-the-porch crowd... I see an out of favor sub-sector. I know why it is out of favor. I know it can't & won't continue. I know this leads to weakness, to pain, to capitulation and to buying opportunities. I prefer to buy weakness, to buy capitulation, to buy patiently and to buy as part of a plan & a broader strategy. Once again; it's all a matter of perspective. DROOY's move today... was a buying opp for those so inclined; but the real story today... is this will accelerate the socio-economic political debate on Black Empowerment, the debate on whether it's more important for RAND policy to battle inflation, or implode the very underlying commodities & industries that make the country and the currency what it is... ...tic' toc' I can only hope GFI, HMY et al - come to daddy as well. I'm still waitin` ...........patiently & calmly. Today accelerated the socio-economic political leverage that was expected and inevitable....it was always when, not if... that is part & parcel of the entire So African play. When, not if... Yeah as I walk into the Valley of the Shadow of Death... I fear not; as I woke up this morning a hopefull & a planned DROOY & So African Gold buyer on any & all weakness... $lider