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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (24419)	2/25/2005 1:26:02 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

RE:"Merriman and Mahendra have excellent track records and Prickter, well he earns his living selling fear and has been wrong for years. Crawford is no better." P who?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (24419)	2/26/2005 2:20:28 AM
From: regli	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Chip, I believe that my emphasis on the decline of the U.S. is correct. Obviously a superpower doesn't decline quickly, it is a gradual process. However, from my perspective all the ingredients for a significant decline are in place: - Imperial overstretch - Unmanageable deficits - Extreme dependency on foreign investment - Highly unpopular in the ROW - A disappearing manufacturing capability - Hugely indebted population dependent on outside goodwill (investment) - Highly capable commercial and industrial opponents There are many more but I think these are some of the key ones. To address and rectify these problems will be highly unpleasant and likely result in a much smaller share of world GDP, spelling the decline I am talking about. Simply losing the advantageous position of having the world's reserve currency will level the playing field. I don't think that the world's financial systems have to collapse in order for these shifts to take place. The dollar nowadays is just about universally viewed as a risky currency to be in. Not a positive! And as an aside, there was no collapse in the financial system and the pound still lost its status before the dollar took over. However, I will not rule out a financial accident. I don't believe you should trade based on fear but as most smart people do, they buy insurance if a potential loss might hurt them significantly.