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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (27249)	2/25/2005 5:34:40 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 110194

5 year record net long commercial position on the 5 year note as of this week. 30 year still looks like it could tank Gold looks very bearish. Looks like something is coming next week which will make the dollar strong and bring down the commodities. Maybe bonds will tank and the dollar get stronger. m

To: russwinter who wrote (27249)	2/25/2005 5:48:46 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Wouldnt the DEC be a better buy? A pause even a late one, might cause DEC to shoot up more. If the FED pauses I doubt it will be for a single meeting. If it comes in early, going out to DEC might even get you an early shattering reversal might it not? It really all depends on a collapse (stock market or housing). Please See Private Mail. Thanks Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (27249)	2/26/2005 8:21:57 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 110194

Adkins estimated that most investors are still using $30 oil and $5.50 natural gas prices as their market yardsticks. "If you plugged in $50 oil and $7 gas into the numbers for exploration and production companies and the majors and carry that through to the service companies, you would end up with phenomenally large earnings," he said. Under that scenario, oil and gas earnings would account for 20 to 25 percent of all S&P 500 earnings. Last year, they accounted for about 15 percent of the S&P 500 earnings. marketwatch.com{26A99421-6173-418C-8E53-37C92691BF52}&siteid=yhoo and that "scenario" assumes profits from financials will continue to be outsized. and that oil won't go up anymore. but what about a scenario where oil goes to $60 or $80? interest rates rise and financial profits crash. under that scenario it seems energy sector profits could account for nearly half of SPX profits. good thing the oil stocks are in such a bubble that they account for all of an 8% weighting in the SPX. i guess a 6.5% gain on the week for Exxon is what happens when all institutional investors are severely underweight the leading fundamental sector and want to crowd in. a week ago i said i was ready to "take my lumps", but the energy sector had its best week of the year. i'm still braced with my eyes shut... but the wheels keep turning in the historical sector rotation from tech and financials into energy. maybe someday, people will wonder why they ever paid above-market PE for tech.