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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (27261)	2/25/2005 6:49:38 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Are you referring the to the math or the thinkin"? On the later Patron is a fucking genius and a man after my own heart <vbg>. On the Dec ED, you have two more FOMC meetings on 9/20 and 11/1, and another about the time the Dec's expire. The Dec is 20 bps more than Sept, so think the market already has the pauses priced in. If it widened to say 30 over the Sept, I say maybe the Dec would be preferrable. However, on the nearer dates, interestingly you now see some bets in Fed funds futures being made for a 50 bps hike in there. trendmacro.com With all the runaway and dangerous trading speculation going on in not just in financial instruments but things the economy actually needs, a 50 bps makes total sense to me. But these sycophants would never do that, so a case can be made for doing OK on the Septs, if they just keep on with their measured routine. If they did do a 50, I would gladly eat my loss, just for the benefit I'd get in shorts and puts. However, I think this trade will work because somewhere between the next and third hike the financial system and housing Bubble comes unravelled even with measured increases.