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To: big guy who wrote (39567)	2/26/2005 6:12:27 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 206325

>>> Try looking at it on a log chart Profile, doesn't look nearly as frothy. <<< In looking at a chart of OIH, I have applied some longer term indicators to the daily chart. The charting software I use allows me to substitute linear regression lines for moving averages and I use 2 standard deviations with those regression lines. What I like about regression lines is that they don't fluctuate with price like Bollinger Bands do. They provide a little more structure but you use them for longer time frames to get a clearer picture. When I place a 110 day Linear Regression channel, the purple line represents the 110 day price movement. The brown lines are the standard deviations, similar to the Bell Curve. Those brown lines represent the extreme and when price gets outside of extreme, it usually comes back to the mean. The mean being the moving average or regression line. OIH has shown a very structured pattern of moving from one extreme to the other as this chart will clearly show. ttrader.com What is different this time is the volume associated with the move. The lower window of the above chart has an indicator listed as TSV 48 with a 20 day moving average. TSV stands for "time segmented volume." Specific segments of time are calculated then applied to a 20 day moving average. I'm using a 48 day time segmented volume calculation which represents a long term look. If you look at TSV, you will note that each time the price of OIH hit the upper regression channel, volume has increased on each move. This would imply that institutions are participating this time. The chart doesn't suggest one way or the other when a reversal move will come. It does suggest that one should determine where their line in the sand will be to protect profits. Buying new positions above the upper regression lines has a very high probability rate of failure. It's like having to throw a 3 on the crap table. You can do it but, the odds are favorably against you. The weekly chart has price now touching the upper channel. Weekly: ttrader.com dabum

To: big guy who wrote (39567)	2/26/2005 10:30:40 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

A log chart helps one see percentage appreciation moves irrespective of price. Hence, one would not expect the compounding to accelerate, let alone to continue indefinitely. Just look at the CSCO and MSFT business models, or IBM for that matter. They grow more in line with GDP and hence the P/E compression experienced over the last 5 years. Furthermore, I am looking at a weekly chart, not even a daily chart. Consider that appreciation acceleration and ask yourself if it is sustainable over an extended period of time. How much longer before it collapses? The catalyst will be something simple and stupid as the chart becomes more stressed with each passing day without a breather. Best regards,