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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (60626)	2/27/2005 9:22:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

At Shanghai Pudong Airport, heading for Hong Kong. On XYZ <<... is too expensive [meaning higher-priced that the long run marginal cost of production of ... or competing products]>> ... Substitute any of "Housing", "Platinum", "QCOM", ... for XYZ, read sentence, and reflect on its meaning. As to "long run marginal cost of production of oil" ... you must know someone I do not know, and that someone must be PRODUCING oil, as opposed to just finding same and simply pumping it out of the ground. How is oil made? Starting with the formation of the stars, and the evolution of carbon-based life form ... and you think the marginal cost of all that is less than USD 30/barrel hot off the printing press? I think we must think in fractal terms, and zoom up to one extreme, and zip down to another terminus, so as to seek truth from facts. As to <<I'll stick with Lord Browne's opinion [which happen to match my own] that oil is too expensive ... cheaper later, at around $30 a barrel if I remember rightly>> ... so, you must have given up on the dream of oil at USD 2/barrel :0) I understand that to make oil from coal using current technologies on reality scales, as opposed to extracting oil from oil sand, costs 4-7 times the current price of oil, and if so, well, given coal is so much more plentiful than oil, then perhaps ... well, you know the math and are aware of the logic. Chugs, Jay

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (60626)	2/28/2005 1:53:11 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

<at around $30 a barrel if I remember rightly.> double that and you will be right. India has not yet done its China. hen it does...

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (60626)	2/28/2005 2:32:50 AM
From: Gib Bogle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

"oil is too expensive [meaning higher-priced that the long run marginal cost of production of oil or competing products]." In the long run we're all dead. Gib

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (60626)	2/28/2005 7:36:33 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Browne's opinion that match MQ's: <Sir John Browne, chief executive of BP-Amoco, is now working on a similar assumption.> The assumption was on oil at about USD11. <<OIL is cheaper today, in real terms, than it was in 1973. After two OPEC-induced decades of expensive oil, oil producers and the oil industry as a whole have more or less given up hope that prices might rebound soon. The chairman of Royal Dutch/Shell, Mark Moody-Stuart, three months ago unveiled a five-year plan that assumed a price of $14 a barrel. He has since publicly mused about oil at $11. Sir John Browne, chief executive of BP-Amoco, is now working on a similar assumption.>> OUCH!!!!