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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (27329)	2/27/2005 9:00:29 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

I don't necessarily think the crude oil or even energy stock run will end immediately, it's just too high risk for my taste now. BTW I was positioned from the late 02 trough, although have missed the final spike of the last couple weeks. Nevertheless, my energy winnings have been quite substantial over the last two and a half years On CL the specs are long 72,389, so certainly 100,000, or even 120,000 could be hit before it's done, if the Japanese (or other Wizards) insist on printing money. However, I would consider this move to be largely Bubble speculation, as US energy inventories simply aren't that constrained right now. raymondjamesecm.com Admittedly, a major geopolitical event may change that quickly, but the market already seems to be betting on the come about that. The risk as I see it is that a spike to $55- 60 may be enough to really crater Asia at this stage. So my primary trading focus is now shifting to the Train Wreck, (translate a very serious contraction of profitless money losing economic activity in China). Message 20761163 Also see Stratfor article posted somewhere here. My focus on energy will be primary as it contributes to that. I think the world economy is already much weaker than the cognescenti playbook. They are out running parabolics in cyclical names like YELL, and DE, and energy, etc, right when business and demand is falling rapidly.