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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (39629)	2/28/2005 1:06:48 PM
From: profile_14	Respond to of 206214

jim_p, I am not sure. I added puts this morning and sold my position and the V bottom just now at 12:20 p.m. I made a very nice percentage return today and on the overall account, 67% and 7%+, respectively, but at the same time I look at the pattern and each time the OSX sells this heavily with such a draw down on price, it is never a one day event. So I would expect more selling to happen over the next day or so as well -- IF IT CLOSES NEAR THE DAY'S LOWS. If not and if it closes near the open, I think we can move some more to the upside. The OSX nearly touched 145 (144.97) this morning, the top you guessed earlier -- GREAT CALL. Moreover, the sector was upgraded this morning. I am cynical and think that brokers test market tops (or near term tops) with upgrades. The sector initially went up and then was sold and continues to be sold. Let's see how the day ends. But when good news cannot send a sector higher, then it is indicative of a top. In the same manner, when bad news does not drive it lower, it is also indicative of a bottom, IMO. Also, many sectors are rolling over and this one has not. Rolling over is not a "V" event as it happens over time. So I would expect to see it here as well. However, that said, the fundamentals are positive for the sector and the economy is using more energy. What I have noticed as well is that this sector has run well into early April before, so I would not call it an absolute top here. The primary seasonal sell off occurs in June/July, but then again, with improving fundamentals and funds having a "must-own" or "must-window dress" attitude, who knows how this will play out, but the sell offs are less accentuated, as one can see by scanning graphs for the previous 5 years and overlaying them onto each other. For me, since I have a short-term horizon, I need to lock in the gains and not get emotionally involved on a position. Being right is only half of the battle. The markets also have to agree with you. My gut tells me this is still a bullish position, susceptible to adjustments when it gets over-extended. I think the downside is greater than the upside from here though, so I will tend to purchase puts when it rises rather than calls when it falls. Best regards,

To: jim_p who wrote (39629)	2/28/2005 4:18:45 PM
From: big guy	Respond to of 206214

"A top or a breather????" If this ain't a top Jim were about to break out of one hell of a big ascending triangle.