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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DOUG H who wrote (5545)	2/28/2005 1:12:41 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8752

Hey Chicken Dude, The $35 is solid long-term chart and volume support: stockcharts.com[w,a]waclyyay[de][pi][vc60]&pref=G The medium term correction is winding down (according to a number of indicators), I can't see $35 being broken. Now as you say, there are several support levels between here and there, including the lower BB, lower regression channel rail, and the 200 sma. 139.142.147.218 I think all 3 will fall, and this will be accompanied by a push against the lower BB rail. See how the lower rail of the long-term regression channel is just above $35? 139.142.147.218 Now look what happens when you set the regression channel to begin where the medium-term correction began... If you draw the lower rail into the "future", the lower rail ends up in just about the same place, even though the slope is opposite the long-term trend. 139.142.147.218 It is possible we could see reversal there (the intersection of the long-term and medium term lower regression channel rails), which would be about $35.50. But I think it is more likely we'll see QQQQ dip briefly below the lower rail (on either chart), just like it did last August---which was also the reversal point of another medium-term correction. In other words, the pivot of the medium-term trend change tends to occur outside the regression channel rails set to the long-term trend (52 weeks): 139.142.147.218 The BBs are now extremely contracted, and the pressure is building. I can't see any other way this can be resolved. Here you can see just how severe this is... the BBs have only been this tight one other time in the past year (possibly two other times): stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[dd][pd20,2!b200][vc60][iLyb20,2.0]&pref=G So you can see the sequence I anticipate here: first the lower BB, then the 200 sma just below, then the lower regression channel rail (which by then will be about the same whether you set the regression channel to the long-term trend at 52 weeks, or the medium-term trends at 13 weeks currently). This level will probably be about $35.25 - $35.50. Next, a dip below the regression channel rails that will last 2 weeks or less. Then.... break out all the dry powder, set the controls for the heart of the sun, and fire at will, because we'll see a strong resumption of the long-term uptrend. This may take several weeks, but I did see more evidence today that the medium-term correction will end sooner rather than later. It will depend on how volume patterns develop, but my guess is we are looking at 2, possibly 3 weeks to hit the lower regression channel rail. But one caveat: everything depends on development of volume characteristic of professional buying and accumulation. Only this will be sufficient to end the correction and power the uptrend. If this does not happen, no uptrend can be sustained, and then we'd be looking at a sideways consolidation/trading range until such volume develops. ....all JMVHO.... T