JD, sometime I really think we are barking up the wrong tree.. it is going to be natural forces beyond our control that will decide our future and not ''our'' emissions.. Tsunami the most recent one was one such example of nature at work..
It is not by accident but by design that the final physical phase, will be a period of volcanic cooling of the biosphere. The network shows clearly that we will waste time and resources if we try to save the environment. The major forces, which are shortening the remainder-time of the human race, are irreversible. The effects of volcanism on climate are far greater than the effects of man-induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. There is no point in introducing costly controls of the latter while the former major factor continues to predominate. As the deinsolating volcanic ash and sulphur layer is at much greater altitude than the Greenhouse carbon dioxide and methane layer, the former layer's cooling effect dominates over the latter layer's heating effect. Carbon dioxide is 1½ times as heavy as air, and it remains in the lower atmosphere. By contrast, the volcanic ash and sulphur layer is at 15-30 kilometres altitude. The amount of carbon dioxide in atmosphere is estimated at 2,000 billion tonnes ... that is, at about .033% of the total weight of the atmosphere.
Even with regard to CFC's, their deleterious effect on the ozone layer is probably small relative to the effect of volcanic chlorine emissions ... and we can't do anything to stop volcanoes from belching out chlorine gas. Underneath us, the Earth's mass will be heating up and, above us, the upper atmosphere will be heating up ... but the biosphere and troposphere will be kept cool, due to the insulation effect of stratospheric volcanic dust. The major factor, bearing on present and future world weather, is Earth expansion, causing increased volcanism, causing greater quantities of volcanic dust in the stratosphere, causing a significant reduction of insolation. The upper atmosphere is very sensitive to dust. It has been calculated that a reduction in solar radiation by 20% would require only 1/1600 of a cubic mile of very fine dust in upper atmosphere. If this amount was to be continually supplied into atmosphere every two years, the average mean temperature of the troposphere would decrease by approximately 5 degrees C. Of course, not only volcanoes but also nuclear explosions may increase the levels of dust in atmosphere: As the volcanic dust and aerosol deinsolation-layer is at a stratosphere height of approximately 15-30 kilometres, and as atmospheric carbon dioxide is below this level, the volcanic layer occludes part of the solar energy before it reaches the carbon dioxide. Thus, volcanism tends to reduce and pre-empt the Greenhouse mechanism.
A 1C degree average temperature drop in the latter part of the 17th century reduced growing seasons by up to a month, causing grain yields to fall by up to 75% in parts of Europe. The Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991 is estimated to have injected 15-20 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide into atmosphere. This, by forming sulphuric acid, encourages the development of chlorine radicals. Volcanoes also produce large quantities of chlorine. Volcanism-sourced chlorine and sulphur dioxide (the one directly and the other indirectly) are major causes of ozone depletion. It has been estimated that approximately 80% of Earth's volcanic activity takes place underwater, at oceanic construction ridges. An increase of global volcanism has a cooling effect on the Earth's atmosphere ... and a major increase would have a major cooling effect. It is paradoxical that a heating-up of the Earth's crust is accompanied by a cooling of the atmosphere. Over the past 180 million years, the Earth's surface has increased in area from 135 to 510 million square kilometres (ref. prop. 919) and this expansion has been characterised by enormous levels of volcanic activity, which have progressively reduced the global mean air temperature. The lithosphere is heating up ... and the ocean-floor crust and deep ocean-waters are warming. H.H.Lamb, the British climatologist, carried out extensive researches on the correlation between volcanism and climate, concerning the period from 1500 AD onwards. He concluded that there has been a definite relationship between world climatic trends and large volcanic eruptions. The hypothesis of Gaia suggests that living organisms have the ability to control their environment and of maintaining a state favorable for their life activity. This hypothesis is mainly based on the apparent impossibility of otherwise accounting for the long existence of the biosphere. Green' eco-restrictions increase cost of production and divert demand from locally produce goods to cheaper imported goods, and cause industries to re-locate to less restrictive environments, thus reducing employment in 'Green' areas and increasing employment in 'non-Green' areas. Where overall supply conditions are rendered less than optimal, production net cost/price increases may reduce total effective consumer demand. Re-distribution of consumer demand, from 'Green' to 'non-Green' areas is, however, the main effect of .. Green restrictions on production. Most people know instinctively that the environment is there for us to use and that to try to conserve it and restore it would be pointless. That is why the Green movement doesn't get more support. The influence of volcanism-related atmospheric veil effects provides the setting for widespread and severe frost damage. The mass of small silicates, which reach and remain in stratosphere, may be small compared with the mass of sulphur injected to stratosphere veil by volcanism. The primary volcanism atmospheric effects are caused by injections of sulphur into the stratospheric veil. This becomes converted to sulphuric acid and dominates the veil, as the aerosol with greatest influence upon climate. In historically recent times, the quietest period of volcanism was from 1100-1250AD: This is known as the medieval warm period. The most active recent periods were 1250-1500AD and 15501700AD, and these periods probably contributed importantly to the Little Ice Age. As Greenhouse warming helps to abate the predominant volcanic cooling effect, we should perhaps be supportive of carbon dioxide and methane emissions, rather than otherwise. We should try to preserve the ozone layer, not for its cooling effect, but for its role in the abatement of harmful ultra-violet radiation. In the case of Venus, we know that its atmosphere is composed of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and a water/ sulphuric acid vapour. The surface waters of Venus probably boiled and vaporised, when the core-explosion heat surfaced amid great volcanism. The volcanism produced the sulphur dioxide which combined with water vapour under the effects of UV rays at high altitudes. Carbon was probably leached from surface rocks by the hot steamy atmosphere. Volcanism was the primary means and mechanism by which heat was delivered from the exploding core, via the mantle, to the Venusian surface and biosphere. Earth's biosphere will be cool and livable until the arrival of massive heat from the mantle, via volcanism. If we try to abate the Greenhouse, all we will accomplish is to reinforce and intensify the effects of the volcanic cooling mechanism. People are right in thinking that we are going to have global warming but, before it comes, we are in for several years of volcanism-induced cooling.
The burning of fossil fuels and timber may, via the Greenhouse effects, serve to partially offset the cooling effects of volcanism. In periods of average or above average levels of volcanic sulphur emissions, there is likely to be a net cooling effect, even given present high levels of man-created carbon-dioxide emissions. Small temperature changes may destroy crops through frost damage. In 1816, Mt. Tambora dust clouds caused average summer temperatures in N.E. USA, Canada, and W. Europe, to drop by 1-2 degrees C. Frosts May-August 1816 eliminated nearly all maize production and much of the Canadian wheat crop. Frosts caused crop failures in France and Switzerland.
Less than one-tenth of the Earth's quakes occur in the southern quarter of the crust ... that is, higher than 45 degrees south latitude. From 1940, lower biosphere insolation (due to increased volcanism) has been causing an ongoing reduction of average world surface temperatures. As the onset of an ice age may occur with a 100-year transition period, it may be that we are half way through a transition period which started in 1940. We may be now experiencing the onset of an ice age caused primarily by Earth expansion and its increasing volcanism. The Greenland ice bore-core analysis, of the past 40,000 years, indicates that there have been up to 7 degree C 'flips' in temperature, occurring over as small a period as 40-50 years. It is to be noted that a 7 degree C variation at a polar region would probably indicate a much lesser variation in lower latitudes. The volcanic cooling effect will maintain until the volcanic surface heating effect offsets and then exceeds it. Volcanic gases generally are predominantly water; other gases include various compounds of carbon, sulfur, hydrogen, chlorine and fluorine. Huge deposits of pyroclastic flows (masses of hot dry rock fragments, mixed with hot gases), covering thousands of square kilometres and tens to hundreds of metres thick, exist in many regions of the world. The volume of these deposits is in the range 100-1000 cubic kilometres, compared with the 30 cubic kilometres of the Katmai (Alaska) eruption. At present, natural forces are, on average, approximately 1000 times greater than energy released by human activities but, in Manhattan, the energy produced by human activities is more than six times the natural energy. About 40 subduction volcanoes erupt each year. The most violent volcanic eruptions belong to the subduction category. The 1883 Krakatoa eruption produced tsunamis more than 30 metres high, which killed 36,000 people.
The Tambora (Indonesia) eruption, of 1815, evinced a force in the magnitude of 4,000 hydrogen bombs. It ejected about 1.7 million tons (or 12 cubic miles) of rock into the sky. A large quantity was pulverised to ash, which went into the upper atmosphere and circled the Earth. Although the Tambora eruption took place on 5 April (1815), night-time freezing temperatures lasted until June-July in New England. People there wore warm coats, even during the day. In August, early frosts killed off crops, drastically reducing the harvest. In Europe, the crop losses were particularly severe.
High-speed stratospheric winds, of nearly 120 K's per hour, carried the fine volcanic ash of the 1883 Krakatoa eruption westward around the globe. Within two months, the stratospheric haze covered over 70% of the Earth's surface. The ash and pumice emissions have been estimated at 18 cubic kilometres (solids). The volcanic ash and dust effects probably operate in the stratosphere, above 10 kilometres height, where the layer of haze hovers for a long time, because there are no clouds and rain to wash it away quickly. Meteorologists have identified a long-lasting aerosol layer at 15-30 kilometres height. These aerosols are a composite of sea salt, silicate dust, and sulphuric acid ... originating from sea spray, dust storms, volcanic eruptions, forest fires, industrial emissions etc. This aerosol layer can increase suddenly with an injection of volcanic dust, but it takes several years to decrease again to normal levels. After the Feb.18, 1963 eruption of Mt. Agung (Bali), volcanic dust reached more than 10 kilometres height and circled the Earth within weeks. Stratospheric temperatures were measured to rise as much as 6 degrees C and the average world temperature dropped .4 of a degree C, for three years after the eruption. The Temmei (Japan) famine and cold of 1787 was probably a direct result of the almost continuous Asama eruptions of 1783 on. Large eruptions (like Tambora, Krakatoa and Santa Maria) were associated with temperature decreases of 0.2 to 0.5 degrees C on a hemispherical scale for periods of one to five years. The lag effect was up to three years, depending mainly on distance from source. Some eruptions had effects over greater distances than others.
At a Jan. 1972 conference of geologists at Brown University (Rhode Island), the consensus was that the present mild climate will probably end in the near future. In the last ice age, which peaked 20,000 years ago, the total mass of ice was probably about three times that of the present ice mass.
Mankind's caloric intake needs to increase by approximately 50% when average temperatures drop from 25 to 4 degrees C. Rice cultivation is widespread where, in summer, there are high temperatures and abundant rainfall. Volcanic ash induced climatic changes could put huge Asian rice crops at risk. Many of the world's major grain crops are sensitive to moderate drops of average temperature. Wheat production in Canada would probably be eliminated by a decrease of 3 degrees C in average temperature. Rice is most sensitive to drops of temperature: If temperatures fall below 15 degrees C, at critical growing periods, rice grains will not form.
Signs that we are entering a period of decreasing surface temperatures include: The habitat of the armadillos is moving southward. The growth period, for British crops, has decreased by half a month over the past 40 years. The Iceland fishing grounds have advanced further south. The amount of drift-ice has increased to that experienced at the beginning of this century. The mountain glaciers of Europe and North America have stopped receding and, in some cases, have been advancing. The area covered by snow and ice, in the northern hemisphere, increased suddenly from 1971 to 1973. A number of scientists consider that the onset of ice ages may occur rather abruptly ... that is, within a 100 year period. The cooling trend in the arctic area is accelerating and a new cold period has already started. It may soon become impossible to grow rice, wheat and maize in the northernmost areas of cultivable land, including Japan. Past statistics indicate that famines, crop failures, floods and heavy rainfall are related to each other.
A major eruption, thousands of miles away, may diminish insolation, altering the world's climate for a year or more. It may cause shorter growing seasons and produce may be scarcer and dearer. In some countries, famine may be triggered, resulting in heavy loss of life. We are now in a period when the climate of Earth is unstable.
The amount of volcanic dust in atmosphere is estimated to vary between 25 and 150 million tonnes.
Among the cold years, since the 19th century, at least six have been related to great eruptions. We are entering upon a prolonged period of volcanism, with consequent major changes to world weather and rainfall patterns. Where the volcanic emission factor is operating, it has a far greater influence on climate than the Greenhouse and ozone factors. Volcanic eruptions tend to return ground water to atmosphere, and thence to surface. All of the four ice ages, of the last one million years, began when volcanic activity in the low latitudes was extraordinarily vigorous.
In areas affected by volcanism, the temperature differential between the upper and lower atmospheres is changed ... and this plays havoc with weather and rainfall patterns. The largest earthquakes of all occur along the shallow dipping faults of subduction zones.
Approximately one-half of incoming solar energy is absorbed at the Earth's surface: Also one-fifth is absorbed within the atmosphere, and the remaining one-third is reflected back into space. It is noteworthy that from zero to 30 degrees of latitude receive twice as much solar energy, per unit square measure, as the 50-70 latitude band. The magnitude of surface insolation falls off rapidly above 30 degrees latitude. Latitudes below 38 degrees have a net gain of solar heat, and latitudes above 38 degrees have a net loss. The above 38 areas constitute a heat sink, to which low latitude heat energy moves via winds. This is the main driving force of atmospheric circulation. The Earth's rotational or Coriolis 'apparent' force results in a deflection of all motion. It is greatest at the poles and zero at the equator.
Greenhouse gases tend to trap solar heat and to prevent it from re-radiating out of the biosphere. Ozone depletion results in a greater percentage of incoming solar energy reaching the biosphere. Both Greenhouse and ozone effects operate to heat up the biosphere. Volcanism, on the other hand, operates to cool the biosphere and is, generally, inimical to organic life. Underground water is estimated at 10 million cubic kilometres: This is about 46 times as much as all fresh water and salt water lakes, and about 8,400 times as much as in the rivers. The amount of water in atmosphere is only about a one thousandth part of 1% of the total amount of the Earth's water. If it were all condensed, it would cover the surface of the Earth only to 25mm of depth. The average depth of all oceans is 12,500 feet. The surface area of the Earth is 197 million square miles and the surface area of the oceans is 140 million square miles. 71% of the Earth's surface is covered by oceans. The volume of the ocean waters is 331.4 million cubic miles. As the Earth's volume is 258,156 million cubic miles, the ocean waters are approximately 1/779 part of Earth's volume. As Earth's average density is 5.53, the ocean waters are approximately 1/4308 part of Earth's mass. Earth's mass is approx. 6,000 billion, billion tonnes, of which the ocean waters are approx. 1.393 billion, billion. The net Greenhouse/ozone/volcanism effects in the 0-30 latitudes is for less rain in drought-prone areas; intensification of droughts; wetter wet seasons; downpours; floods; landslides; hurricanes and crop failures. The net Greenhouse/ozone/volcanism effects in the 30-60 latitudes is for greater cold; colder winters; shorter summers; wetter wet seasons; drier dry seasons; storms; hail; floods; landslides and crop failures. Volcanic emissions are mainly in the 0-35 latitudes that is, the latitudes which normally have a net gain of solar energy received over solar energy absorbed, and this net gain is the main driving force of atmospheric circulation (as winds carry warmth to the highl-atitude heat-sink). Volcanic emissions in the 0-35 latitudes, eliminate the net gain of solar energy (by decreasing solar energy received) and reduce the driving force of atmospheric circulation and reduce the east-to-west trade winds of the 10-35 latitudes. This sets up the pre-conditions for El Niño. Normally, the trade winds blow from South America west across the Pacific. Surface waters move westward and are replaced by cool, nutritious waters from the continental shelf. The sea is cool and full of phytoplankton. But, when the trade winds die, the waters become warm and plankton populations decrease. El Niño (the boy child) starts to operate, as pressures in the Pacific area become lower than pressures in the Indian Ocean area ... setting up the 'southern oscillation' winds. El Niño signals vast changes in the atmosphere's global circulation, including:
• (a) A reduction of rainfall in Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
• (b) Droughts in the Sahel region, Southern Africa and North-Eastern Brazil.
• (c) An increase of rainfall in Southern Brazil, Argentina and Southern USA.
• (d) A warming of Western Canada.
• (e) stormy weather in the Northern Pacific.
• (f) Weaker and later monsoons in India.
• (g) Winds, coming from the North across Australia to the west coast of New Zealand's South Island, are drier ... resulting in less rain reaching the eastern parts of the South Island.
The human species is quite remarkable in its will to survive, ability to adjust, resilience and ability to regenerate. However, the human species depends upon a food chain which is not as strong, survivally, and the human species is most at risk when its food chain is threatened.
Primary threats to our food chain are, or stem from, increased volcanism, ozone depletion and radiation.
There are over 500 volcanoes which are classed as active ... that is, which have erupted in historic time. Of these, 50 to 60 volcanoes are currently active.
Historical records indicate that eruptions, comparable in size to St. Helens or El Chich6n, occur about once or twice a decade. Larger eruptions, such as Pinatubo, occur about once every 100 or 200 years. Of course, past records may not be a reliable guide as to the future. |
