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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (27437)	2/28/2005 6:50:11 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Another limit up for lumber: futures.tradingcharts.com CRB going parabolic: charts3.barchart.com Can't say I'm in any hurry to get long EDs. You will have to see some very strong signs of a real slowdown now. It's out there, and will be caused by the Train Wreck you are witnessing above, but the Fed now has their hands tied with a major hyperinflationary outburst. Indicators that might do it for me: Baltic: a break below 400 quote.bloomberg.com MBAA Purchase index: a string of at least 3-4 weeks below 400, with a 380 in there. 3-5 weeks in a row down yoy steel output Drop in Rasmussen consumer index below 110, for four weeks running. rasmussenreports.com A 10% drop in yoy home sales in these "hot" northern Calf. counties. dqnews.com A 5% drop in yoy inbound containers West coast ports. Message 21035694

To: mishedlo who wrote (27437)	2/28/2005 7:38:56 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

<<That said, I do NOT believe a rise in oil prices is inflationary.>> Well, it isn't all by it's lonesome...but if it occurs because 1) the economy has been overstimulated or 2) the powers that be try to "pay" for higher priced oil by debasing the currency it is priced in (clownbux), then inflation can be the result. Never forget that one of the contributing causes to the 1973 Arab oil embargo was anger at the US over the falling dollar (and anger as well at the US supporting/supplying Israel in the midst of the 1973 Yom Kippur War). No K-wave arguments in rebuttal will be accepted.....<G>