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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (24623)	2/28/2005 10:24:26 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 116555

The MBAA purchase index seems like a solid indicator. I wonder if there is any historical data to test against previous slowdowns? Of course, the basic premise is that housing is in a bubble, that housing will slowdown (or deflate) and that that will impact the economy. Just for fun, here are a couple of Greenspan quotes (compare to the housing charts): 1990: "But such imbalances and dislocations as we see in the economy today probably do not suggest anything more than a temporary hesitation in the continuing expansion of the economy." Alan Greenspan, Jan 1990 Compare to this chart (we were about 6 months from a recession and housing was already slowing down): photos1.blogger.com 1973: "It is very rare that you can be unqualifiedly bullish as you can be now." Alan Greenspan, Jan 1973 And the '70s chart (we are about 10 months from a recession and housing had already put in a top): photos1.blogger.com Charts from my blog: calculatedrisk.blogspot.com