Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24631)	3/1/2005 9:30:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

CORN: Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Monday, February 28, 2005 and the markets are closed. Our weekly export inspection report came out showing 31.6 m.b. of corn was inspected for near term export up from 23.8 the week prior, 24 a year ago and four week average of 27. Year to date inspections are 847 m.b. versus 912 a year ago. It is a nice improvement considering our recent rally and though we continue to run 7% behind a year ago, we are now seeing nervousness among importers who feel lows may be in. Strength continues to come on the heels of a big bean rally as drought cuts bean yields in South America having funds buying beans and short covering corn. Funds were short over 50 thousand contracts entering last week but look to be out of all their shorts as of Friday. Small speculators still remain heavily short as well as large speculators. Corn continues a follower’s roll to beans and with a dry forecast through Sunday, there is more room for shorts to panic out. We hit major resistance on May at today’s highs of 2.25. A close over 2.25 Tuesday sets us up to test 2.37. Support lies at 2.16 Tuesday. Avoid the short side until rain enters the picture in South America or we get to March 10 to 15 when Brazil’s bean growing season ends. WHEAT: Our weekly export inspection report showed 22.3 m.b. were inspected for near term export versus 21.2 the week prior, under a year ago of 29 but over our four week average of 17.7. Year to date inspections are 792 m.b. versus 837 a year ago. No bullish demand signal yet. Today’s strength came on two issues. One, it was last day for large trading fund to buy back short positions before deliveries begin in earnest and two, they followed a sharp bean rally. Weather in the western plains looks generally drier than normal with normal temperatures. Our dormant winter crop finds no direction from this as soil moisture remains adequate. Dormancy looks to break by mid-month. Wheat looks to slow up its rise as funds look to be out of shorts so strength looks to be fueled by soybeans direction. May wheat finds support at 3.33 and resistance up at 3.55. A close this week under support and we could see 3.20 in March. Avoid short side until beans peak between now and March 15th. BEAN: Our weekly export inspection report showed 27.3 million bushels of beans were inspected for near term export down from 33.5 the week prior, equal our four week average and well over a year ago of 19.4. Year to date inspections are 770 m.b. versus 702 a year ago. It suggests recent price gains maybe slowing demand but overall it is still a positive demand signal. Hats off to wxrisk.com for the Thursday and Friday weather updates calling for a dry weekend and dry week this week while other weather gurus kept calling for rain. May beans opened at 6.21 up 16 cents pulled back to 6.11 on fund profit taking but made new highs late of 6.24 as weather this week looks to be dry further cutting yields in Brazil as beans head into the end f their key pod setting stage into March 15th. This rally on yield concerns will end before March 15th when Brazil’s crop ends its growing cycle or on a call for drought ending rains to end. Wxrisk.com sees this week as generally too dry to improve yields and the next chance for appreciable rain about March 8th. Next week’s outlook will become clearer by Wednesday and Thursday. May soybeans have support at the bottom of a small chart gap at 6.06 to 6.11 then major support at 5.94. I noted on my Friday report that if we came in Monday today and saw dry weather all week we would fill the chart gap on May between 6.10 and 6.24. Well, today’s low was 6.11 and the high 6.24. a close over 6.24 Tuesday sets us up to test next resistance of 6.58. That will occur if midweek weather updates confirm a dry start to next week in Brazil. Be careful, fund are fat with profits and could bail on a hint of a change in the forecast.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24631)	3/1/2005 9:45:33 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Fed´s Moskow: Wage pressures acting as expected, so far Tuesday, March 1, 2005 2:25:23 PM afxpress.com Fed's Moskow: Wage pressures acting as expected, so far CHICAGO (AFX) -- Wage pressures within the U.S. labor market are behaving as expected, Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow said Tuesday The U.S. labor market has improved, but the number of displaced workers remains higher even than in periods with higher unemployment rates, presenting challenges for Federal Reserve policy and the central bank's commitment to containing inflation, Moskow said in prepared remarks for delivery to a conference of the National Association of State Workforce Agencies, in Washington "With a higher fraction of the unemployed lacking the needed skills to fill available jobs, there could be more shortages of certain kinds of workers, leading to upward pressure on labor costs," he said "On the other hand, an environment in which job displacement is more common may make workers reluctant to press for large wage increases, which would tend to restrain labor-cost pressures." So far, "wage pressures have not been higher than one would expect on the basis of the usual measures of labor-market slackness." Most inflation gauges continue to show gradually rising inflation, but not a significant acceleration. It's the inflation landscape that has so far allowed the central bank to stick to a policy of gradually tightening lending conditions. Signs of stronger inflation would presumably quicken the Fed's rate-hike pace According to recently released minutes from the Fed's February meeting, some members are mindful of a sudden pickup in wage demands and other inflation red flags that have not yet emerged in the major economic indicators The Federal Open Market Committee agreed in early February that core inflation would remain "low and stable" assuming further rate hikes. But members agreed to watch incoming data closely, especially information on wages and corporate profits, for signs of building inflation pressures. Moskow, a voter this year on the Fed's rotating monetary-policy panel, did not directly address the near-term course for interest rates in his prepared speech The Fed is widely expected to raise its current 2.5 percent target to 2.75 percent when it next meets March 22. The Fed has raised interest rates by a quarter-point on six occasions since last June Moskow said job eliminations are most likely tied to technological improvements, which has also raised the level of U.S. productivity "When productivity grows at a faster rate, the economy can grow faster -- resulting in higher incomes and producing more goods and services for all of us to enjoy -- without generating inflationary pressures," he said. "This ultimately makes our job at the Federal Reserve easier, because our mandate is to set monetary policy to support maximum sustainable economic growth and price stability." "But, in the short run, there are some complex judgments to make." He welcomed recent signs that the labor market has improved Private economists on average think Friday's jobs report will show 221,000 payroll additions in February, up from January's 146,000. "The economy has added 2 million jobs over the past year. However, rates of job displacement are relatively high -- as high as in some periods when the unemployment rate was significantly higher than it is now," Moskow said "This suggests that the pace of change in the economy has increased the risks that workers' skills will become obsolete, and they will lose their long-held jobs. It also means that a larger-than-normal fraction of the unemployed are the kind of displaced workers who often face difficult challenges in finding new employment."

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24631)	3/1/2005 9:51:57 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Gold supply falls miningmx.com GOLD supply fell 13% in 2004 compared to 2003 recording the sharpest fall in mine production since the 1940s, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in its annual review. Gold production, which totalled 2,478 tonnes in 2004, recovered slightly in the fourth quarter of 2004, however, owing to improved production from Grasberg, a large gold mine in Indonesia. The fourth quarter also benefited from a number of new mines, the WGC said.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24631)	3/1/2005 9:58:47 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK retailers cut jobs at fastest rate for 12 yrs, Feb sales below average - CBI Tuesday, March 1, 2005 11:38:53 AM forexstreet.com LONDON (AFX) - The recent slowdown in high street spending appears to be taking its toll on the employment front as news emerged today that retailers have cut jobs at the fastest rate in just over 12 years In its quarterly survey of the sector, the Confederation of British Industry, the UK's largest business lobby group, said retailers wielded the axe in the wake of the "fierce" pressure sales and prices are now under The survey found that 15 pct of retailers said they were employing more people than a year ago but 33 pct said employment was down. The balance of -18 pct is the lowest since November 1992, the CBI said Overall, the CBI said retail sales in February were further below the average for the time of year than at any time for six years and in the year to February sales barely grew at all. Though the balance of reported sales in the year to February turned positive at +2 pct from -3 pct in January, it was below market expectations of a more marked increase to +7 pct and contrasts badly with the 2004 average of +24 pct There was further gloom as retailers said volumes at this time of year were at their worst since January 1999, with the balance of retailers saying sales were good standing at -23 pct However, there was some good news with a balance of +14 pct suggesting stronger sales growth in March, while the three month rolling average, which smooths out month to month blips, showing sales up by more than than expected A balance of + 11 pct for February compares with the +8 pct expected. Overall, the CBI's chief economic adviser Ian McCafferty said it may be that high levels of personal debt, coupled with stagnant house prices, mean that interest rate hikes have a bigger and quicker effect now than in previous decades. In addition, he said consumers may be concerned about rising fuel prices and council taxes

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24631)	3/1/2005 10:01:17 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

BoE´s Tucker says thinks there is excess demand in UK economy Tuesday, March 1, 2005 11:30:36 AM afxpress.com BoE's Tucker says thinks there is excess demand in UK economy GUILDFORD, England (AFX) - Earnings growth is set to pick up in the months ahead, putting upward pressure on prices, a Bank of England policy-maker said today Paul Tucker, a member of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, thinks that a tight labour market and excess demand in the economy will eventually combine to push up prices "With monetary policy needing to be set on a medium-term view, overall I concluded at the MPC's latest meeting that our interest rate should be increased by 25 basis points, a small tweak to reflect the outlook," he said in a speech to business leaders at a Confederation of British Industry event Tucker was the only one on the nine-member panel to vote for a hike in the Bank's key repo rate to 5.00 pct in last month's meeting Though the central bank has raised the cost of borrowing by a quarter point on five occasions since November 2003, it has kept interest rates on hold since last August as evidence of slowing consumer demand, particularly in the housing market, emerged However, in its quarterly Inflation Report last month, the central bank appeared to pave the way for another increase in the months to come when it predicted that the consumer price index would rise above the 2.0 pct target over the two-year horizon "There are many risks around that central outlook but, taken together with November, I judge them to be slightly less to the downside over the medium term," said Tucker "In my judgement, there is, on balance, most likely a degree of excess demand in the economy," he said, citing surveys showing above-average capacity utilisation "And there is some corroborative evidence in the rise in output price inflation relative to costs, and in anecdote of some firms being able to pass on cost increases," he added He suggested that firms may have increased output by making greater use of their existing workforce and capital "That would be consistent...with the pick up in private sector growth over the past year or so," he said "Looking ahead, it would also suggest a degree of upwards pressure on earnings growth," he added

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24631)	3/1/2005 10:29:33 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK Jan consumer credit posts biggest gain since June 2004 Tuesday, March 1, 2005 9:57:54 AM forexstreet.com LONDON (AFX) - UK consumer credit rose in January, posting its biggest gain since June 2004, while mortgage approvals dipped, according to figures released by the Bank of England Net new consumer credit rose by 2.3 bln stg from a gain of 1.6 bln in December, its highest level since June last year and well above expectations for a much more modest rise of 1.7 bln Credit card lending was particularly strong in January, rising by 1.1 bln stg compared with a rise of 661 mln in December. The rise is the highest since March last year Mortgage lending also increased, rising by 7.2 bln stg from the previous month after a rise of 6.9 bln in December. Again this is above analysts' forecast for a rise of 6.7 bln However, Mortgage approvals -- an indicator of future demand -- dipped to 79,000 in January from 83,000 in December, in line with expectations. The number is still above November's low of 76,000 The figures suggest that the UK housing market may not be slowing as much as previously thought, and the level of consumer credit may be of sufficient concern for the Bank of England to consider a rate hike in the coming months In June -- the last time when consumer credit jumped so high -- the BoE was still in the process of tightening monetary policy UK interest rates have been left on hold at 4.75 pct since August last year The Bank also reported that total net lending, which adds up net consumer credit and net mortgage lending, rose to 9.5 bln stg from 8.5 bln stg the previous month. The figure is the highest since August last year

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24631)	3/1/2005 10:42:18 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. Feb ISM Tuesday, March 1, 2005 3:35:50 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated again in February, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday. The index has slipped for four straight months. The index is at its lowest level of the index since Sept. 2003. The ISM index fell to 55.3 percent in February from 56.4 percent in January. The decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to rise to 56.7. "While the overall rate of growth is slowing, the overall picture is improving as price increases and shortages are becoming less of a problem," said Norbert Ore, chair of the ISM factory survey Bond prices rose after the ISM data was released. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. The index has been above 50 for 21 straight months New orders fell to 55.8 in February from 56.5 in January, while production fell to 56.7 from 57.8 The employment index fell to 57.4 from 58.1 Prices fell to 65.5 in February from 69.0 in January