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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (39665)	3/1/2005 4:56:48 PM
From: diana g	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206209

I'm betting it's a dip Hi jim, You wrote: <<<"...Looks like a classic top to the cycle at OSX 144.97....">>> I think maybe it is different this time. ---I know. I know. It's a cyclical sector & to make $$ one has to know when to get out. I got out in late dec. But I got back in recently. I know you can make a good case that this is a top. But I look at (among other things) the long term charts for XOM and I think something is going on that isn't a cyclical top forming. We all know the 'peak oil' story & the NA NG story. But they've been true for several cycles while not evidently being immediately relevant to the price of sector stocks. I remember the last few tops and it's true that there were people saying "AHA! Finally the world is waking up & smelling the coffee about oil!" Then the sector headed down. But I think that maybe this time this is not a top. I agree that, as a general rule, cycles will continue. But I think we might be seeing here a surge to a new level. Look at that XOM chart. In the last month XOM has risen extraordinarily on very high volume. Half a billon shares bought at record high & increasingly high price. That's not a buying frenzy in some penny stock. That's Big Money shifting. I don't think they bought to sell next week or next month. Of course I'm just a simple grrl & I've been wrong many times. But I'm betting this we're seeing now is a dip is a continuing upward move. Regards, diana PS, Mike, be sure to tell women that you don't like to watch ball games! That will be worth more than looking like a fashion model in being desirable to most women!!

To: jim_p who wrote (39665)	3/1/2005 6:36:46 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206209

Jim, You may be correct in your analysis about a top in the OSX. In my opinion, it's too soon to tell yet. The accompanying chart will show a 30 day regression channel with 3 standard deviations. Most stocks and indices, when they hit the outer channel, will usually correct, especially with the longer term charts. The accompanying chart is a weekly chart and it shows the last 5 trading sessions as opposed to a Monday through Friday set up. The 20 week moving average is located just above the lower channel line and since price goes from one extreme to the other, and usually reverses, the odds are suggesting this is a correction at this time. A move to the bottom of the channel keeps the OSX in an up trend. The OSX will probably reverse or at least consolidate for awhile if it hits the lower channel. ttrader.com MACD is still strong as are the rate of change and volume indicators noted in the bottom window of the chart. dabum