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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (27540)	3/1/2005 5:33:27 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

no, I am sorry I am short. I almost covered last thurs morning on an upgrade and decided to wait. it's been one upgrade after another since then. unfortunately, once the chart starts to look good everyone else upgrades, afraid to miss a rally. if the rest of the market looked good, I'd cover up. but fleck says (I know that's hazardous to one's health) their business is all channel stuffing. and if you look at the charts of the computer resellers (dell, hpq, bby) it makes sense. so for now I'm toughing it out.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (27540)	3/1/2005 8:03:47 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

So after the big pump today, tomorrow we get the dump. Anybody can easily see this industry is turning south in a hurry. dramexchange.com Is it finally time to start betting the obvious? I wrote SMH March 35 calls naked today @ .75. GS avoids the universal hype. Goldman Sachs remains Cautious on the Semi Equipment sector We met with TSMC on Monday and uncovered what we believe to be a very important data point for the sector. Recall that SPE managements bull case is predicated on higher H205 order levels from customers that have raised their 2005 capex but are currently ordering at low levels. However, TSMC highlighted that approximately $1b of the $2.6b in 2005 capex is already a payable on its balance sheet, which will be recognized as capex when the cash flow payment is made to the equipment suppliers in Q1 and Q2. In other words, this equipment has already been ordered by and shipped to TSMC. We therefore believe that the equipment companies contention that orders must recover in H205 based on TSMCs higher capex forecast is not valid. We view this as a significant negative as these facts stand in direct contrast to the bullish case being presented by semi equipment managements. We maintain our Cautious coverage view. AMD Sees Lower Computer Chip Sales By Chris Kraeuter TheStreet.com Staff Reporter 3/1/2005 7:22 PM EST Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE - commentary - research) said first-quarter sales of its computer chips would decline "slightly" from the previous quarter, compared with an earlier target for flat to down sales, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company wasn't specific about its targets and didn't say what had changed from Jan. 19, when it previously stated its financial goals for the first quarter. AMD made the disclosure on late Tuesday in its annual report filed with the SEC. The company also said its memory product sales would decline, similar to what AMD said on Jan. 19. Memory chips and computer chips each make up roughly half of AMD's total sales base.