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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (27561)	3/1/2005 9:43:04 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

There is little doubt that consumer borrowing (and thus of course spending) has shut down since XMAS. Just one more clear sign Message 21092289 that's being ignored about a serious slowdown being under way. I'll guess we will see a series of "surprise" warnings coming in the obvious, similar to tech and semis after today's close. Historically markets anticipate recessions, this one is special, as it looks like a depression will come to it, completely unexpected, given all the ostriches out there. HELOCs: (consumers have been pulling $2-3 billion a week out of these, no mas) 01/05/2005 403.0 01/12/2005 404.1 01/19/2005 404.9 01/26/2005 405.9 02/02/2005 405.7 02/09/2005 405.4 02/16/2005 405.7 Consumer loans: 12/29/2004 685.5 01/05/2005 685.2 01/12/2005 680.7 01/19/2005 678.8 01/26/2005 678.8 02/02/2005 674.8 02/09/2005 673.8 02/16/2005 680.6 Since the consumer is tapped out, let's make loans to Pig Men to engage in fantasy: 12/29/2004 190.6 01/05/2005 192.3 01/12/2005 194.7 01/19/2005 190.4 01/26/2005 203.9 02/02/2005 213.8 02/09/2005 214.4 02/16/2005 219.1 Source: federalreserve.gov Credit cards: bankrate.com Expect variable rates to climb as card issuers catch up with the Fed's rate moves. The Fed has increased short-term rates by a total of 1.25 percentage points since June of last year, and is expected to continue bumping them up this year. But if card issuers move in anticipation of future increases, fixed-rate card holders could see larger jumps in their interest rates, says Evan Momios, equity analyst for Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services. "The consumer is going to be paying higher rates on outstanding balances, without a doubt," says David Robertson, publisher of the Nilson Report, a payment systems newsletter. And what about those great, low introductory rates? Expect to see "fewer and fewer zero-percent teaser rates," says Momios. While you're "not going to see those offers disappearing completely, you're not going to see the volume you've seen in recent years," he says.