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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim McMannis who wrote (27602)3/2/2005 12:14:03 PM
From: Amy J  Respond to of 110194
 
Jim, if the RE bubble bursts with a drastic decline in prices, nasdaq will be negatively impacted as well, as you and others have astutely pointed out.

So, the ideal scenario for Nasdaq is if real estate prices remain flat to at most modestly declining. Would suspect real estate prices to stay flat or declines by 5% over a decade. At least with Nasdaq, you can write CC's.

But yes, if real estate tanks drastically, it would spill over to other industries (esp consumer industries) and negatively impact Nasdaq if there's any drastic real estate decline. Fortunately many of the Nasdaq companies generate revenue majority from international sources, though even there, it's a world global real estate bubble. However, since homes aren't very liquid, I suspect people will simply hold them and watch the prices stay flat or slightly decline. The bubble areas might see some local declines.

Your buddy:

money.cnn.com

Greenspan: Fix Social Security, Medicare

Fed chief says growth of benefit programs, if not addressed, could make budget problems worse.
March 2, 2005: 11:46 AM EST

"Addressing the government's own imbalances will require scrutiny of both spending and taxes," Greenspan said.

Greenspan is finally getting tough.

But he wants us to work harder because of Bush's deficit:

"Greenspan noted that solid growth in productivity -- or worker output of goods and services per hour -- would help ease budget strains. "

Regards,
Amy J