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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24752)	3/2/2005 3:52:45 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

KT, Re: I hate to see a red under every bed, but this looks like another Neocon plot to destroy Americans. Naw, the neo-cons are really only interested in the militarization of society and Greater Israel's every need. The domestic banking industry is behind the new ruthless approach to crushing consumers who fall into debt hell. The bankers may be greedy, mendacious, Republican and effective schemers (all neo-con traits), but they aren't neo-cons. :) And we don't call what the bankers are up to a "conspiracy". It's more politely described as an effective (albeit cruel) corporate plan being brought to fruition with the aid of a compliant legislature. You do see the difference, don't you? :)

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24752)	3/2/2005 4:40:14 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

CORN: Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Wednesday, March 2nd and the markets are closed. Not much change since my Monday report with corn continuing to price its self daily based on soybeans influence. May corn pushed to up 5 on the open following a 17 cent gain in beans. With large speculators still short more than 100 thousand contracts, their nervous that if beans continue to run higher they may be forced to bail out. The trade in general wants to be short on a series of bearish fundamentals, but if dry weather continues into the end of the growing season in South America where beans are finishing off their growing cycle by March 15th, they know may could give way to more short covering near term. What keeps traders so bearish corn is not just our huge ending stocks for this year at 2.010 b.b. up from 958 m.b. a year ago but prospects for our March 31st planting intension report to show a 2 to 3 million acre increase this year. As I have noted recently, we cannot expect corn to begin to move lower until beans have capped off the weather rally. May corn has resistance at 2.26 then 2.37. Support lies down at 2.15 then 2.08. If you’re a bear consider buying a April 2.20 call for 5 cents or $250. This gives you upside protection until March 24th. Bulls can consider this as well. Bulls in the market should have stops under 2.15. WHEAT: Wheat too, feels the same market sympathy as corn. Traders want to be bearish but strength in beans have large trading funds buying out of short wheat and other feed grains pulling them for the ride. Wheat’s future strength lies with beans. Fundamentals remain unchanged with demand running behind a year ago and our soon to break dormancy winter wheat crop remains in excellent condition. May wheat finds resistance at 3.55 with support at 3.38. Bears can consider selling on a close only under 3.38 which could lead for a test of 3.20 quickly or consider an April 3.30 put for 5 cents or $250. the calls for the bulls are too expensive. Bulls should puts stops under our 3.38 support. BEAN: This is a classic weather roller coaster for pricing. We came in Monday with a clear picture of hot and dry conditions to prevail over maturing south American soybean fields. May beans pushed to 5 month highs to up 20 cents on the day. Tuesday saw a opening high of 2 cents better than Monday’s high before funds fat with profits went to the bank pulling may from up four to down eight on the close but continued talk of dry weather through Sunday and uncertainty over next week had traders quickly buying back in Wednesday posting 17 cent opening gains. Here is where the market stands. Brazil’s growing season is over March 15th. Sometime between now and then our weather pricing high will be in, leaving weather concerns to disappear until May when U.S. beans go to planting. The last three weeks saw sharp rallies on Thursday and Friday as government weather satellite data being released Wednesday night had private weather gurus giving dry 6 to 10 day outlooks. If data supports a wet forecast for next week, a sharp decline in prices will occur. If data supports another hot dry week we can expect a push to next resistance of 6.58 basis May futures. Wxrisk.com says the next chance for rain comes March 9 to 10 but at today’s data looks to be marginal on rain totals. There is at least a 60/40 chance in favor of further late week gains. Buy long the soft spots in the daily pricing with a 6.10 April put at 12 cents or $600. for downside insurance incase a overnight weather change to rain gives us the dreaded 20 cent lower opening. May support is 6.22 then 6.06 and again resistance is 6.58. End.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24752)	3/2/2005 5:49:19 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

MB: I don't know about a conspiracy, but as an outside observer, watching Greenboink have the audacity to start lecturing about the US government's need to get its financial house in order...... man that sure does take the cake. Why members of his esteemed audience don't just stand up and tell him that he ought to have a look at the insane monetary policies he has promulgated before lecturing others, is beyond understanding. Whether they do or not, both history and a large (and soon-to-be-very-poor) cross-section of the public will, once it all unravels. Best, Earlie