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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (27644)	3/2/2005 5:23:34 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<As for walmart shelves, they can remain full if no one is buying> There's enough wealth in the US that can be liquidated that a large group of people can still take care of basic subsistence items. Therefore, scarcity becomes a big issue in my scenario. The US free ride on inexpensive goods and vendor financing will end. Any kind of resource supply disruption will just aggravate that. Did you see how dependant both China and the US are on commodities and resources? Take a hard look at how parabolic and unsustainable those charts are, especially for profitless enterprises that hang in only because of borrowing and printing presses. I fail to see how printing presses make an unprofitable operation a profitable one. In fact, the printing encourages more unjustified production lowering everyone to the point of profit loss. No one can afford to buy (except with cash out refis) cause the only jobs are in China. But you could be correct. Prices might rise. In fact here is my "nightmare scenario" I posted on the FOOL just today. ======================== To the question: "Can there be deflation and a falling dollar at the same time?" Here was my answer. Inflation and Deflation are monetary phenomenons that deal with rising and falling money supply and only indirectly related to rising or falling prices or rising or falling currencies. Thus one could see deflation with a falling dollar, rising import prices, and falling asset prices. Now wouldn't that make a worst of all world's combination. To whit: Falling money supply Rising bankruptcies Falling home prices Falling stock market prices Falling wages Falling US$ Rising import prices Falling employment Rising medical costs That combination is entirely possible. ======================== Now I know you will believe falling money supply when you see it, but you sure have to admit the entire scenario outlined above would be one of the worst possible outcomes. Mish