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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy who wrote (221672)	3/3/2005 7:47:18 AM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573835

re: I don't think the analogy is accurate. The Sunnis don't have the assets necessary to fight a civil war, such as an army, bases, supply lines, a meaningful arms procurement program and, especially, a national treasury to finance a mini-civil war. I'm not sure those are necessary to the definition of civil war. Maybe I should have said fledgling instead of mini. re: Some of the Sunnis are in a fringe guerilla war, which has no realistic scenario where the Sunnis defeat the Shia/Kurdish/Coalition alliance (which has all of those "assets"). The longer the Sunnis keep up their guerilla activities, the more and more they will be marginalized and lose standing in the future Iraq. The outcome where the Sunni insurgency actually defeats the rest of the population (including coalition forces) is really hard to imagine. Winning is not a perquisite to a war. You sound certain that Iraq will emerge from this as a single entity, with everyone living in peace and harmony. Already I am reading about very deep divisions. The Kurds want to autonomous, some Shia are talking about an autonomous state in the south, and the Sunnis are a wild card. Nobody knows what's going to happen there. re: And how many Sunnis will choose to follow a leadership that says go blow yourself up, when presented with an alternative which is to play a role in the Shia/Kurdish/Coalition reconstruction process? I don't know... so far enough folks to make every day an adventure in Iraq. Some of the Shiites are resisting participation by the Sunnis, and that could gain momentum. The "why can't we all just get along" scenario for a future Iraq is one possibility, but there are many others. And the current subtle trends are not moving in that direction. It's a power struggle right now, a country and resources up for grabs. And with strong outside influences; the US being just one. There is a lot at stake for all these folks. I'm not sure how we extricate ourselves from this unless things go perfectly. And so far, outside of the initial invasion, nothing has gone perfectly in Iraq. "May you live in interesting times". John