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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (27717)	3/3/2005 2:12:12 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 110194

I think oil just topped out m

To: mishedlo who wrote (27717)	3/3/2005 2:40:19 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<<Historically that is not true>> Which part?<VBG>

To: mishedlo who wrote (27717)	3/4/2005 2:29:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

past history on dollar-bond-gold triangle irrelevant people like to point to the 1930's for gold during bad times they had no derivatives back then they had no carry trade back then they had no hedge funds back then they had no offshore banking back then they had no Asian mfg dynamism back then they had no post-peak oil back then they had no active central banks back then they had no political puppeteer strings to banking back then they had no asset economy back then they had no absent US mfg base back then and my favorite they had no currency war victims like now industry shutdowns from cost shifts (see smelters, SA gold mining, entire US mfg base, Mexican border mfg) the gold community likes to portray the current climate as similar to the 1970s it has almost no similarity whatsoever, except rising energy and gold prices outside that, NADA with biggest difference being China's blockage of the cost push inside the US Economy Mish, the current secular deflation is alive and well its queer signature is the falling US$ and falling USTrez long rate this will continue as long as the yen carry trade is on the table it aint going away until the 290 bpt differential vanishes so a bond rally will continue right with the secular deflation perversely, Greenspan has aided through boastful broadcast the plan to aid liquidity and accommodate with low rates he provided the yen carry trade with its one-sided assurance of success this assurance is confirmed on a regular basis by Bank of Japan interventions to prevent the yen from rising combined with Asian trade surplus recycle, surely not to stop for a while, long US rates will continue down down down the bond rally during this secular deflation will frustrate thh gold bull market gold needs a faltering bond market the bull will act like a blind beast running aimlessly I expect gold to be landlocked between 415 and 455 for a full year / jim