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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rich evans who wrote (24901)	3/3/2005 11:17:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

I would guess that the payroll job figures will be in the 150,000 to 175,000 area. Many Companies continuing to downsize and restructure. It will be interestng to see what the household job figures are. Historically , I believe there was good correlation but in the last years household figures exceeded the total 2 mill increase in payroll figures by a large amount. Although people are not getting hired by companies as much, many people are working as independent contractors, it would seem. Maybe this is one reason consumption , houses etc remain robust. JMHO. Rich You are going to geta huge treasury rally on 150,000 As for contractors, I am not sure I buy it. Perhaps housing related. Consumption is high because people are spending their houses. Job participation rate is a joke. What jobs we are adding (and those are plentiful) are at Walmart, pizza hut, and Home depot. Nursing and housing are legitimately strong. How long can the latter last? As for total jobs, Bush managed to lose private sector jobs on his watch. He missed winning the Hoover award only because he grew govt jobs. Later on this year 500,000 people are going to get axed in mergers. I doubt those can be made up. Mish