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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24937)	3/4/2005 11:51:32 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Now of course that is correct, but I would guess that 95% of people going into commodities futures for the first time have maybe something like $250,000 or less to commit; that they lose that $250,000; and that if that's all they have, it's all gone. A person who puts $250,000 into an average diversified mutual fund could lose half of it, but they still have at least half. However, I think that anyone putting $250,000 into PCRDX might well enjoy a 15-20% real return, inflation adjusted, for the next ten years. There is that remaining 5% who are smart or lucky or both and who will turn $250,000 into $2,500,000 by buying futures directly.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24937)	3/4/2005 1:50:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

advice from movers Given to Hack on the FOOL movers are at my place right now delivering my things for my move to colorado. the mover was telling me i should have bought a house instead of renting this apt. he said i'm throwing away my money on rent and houses always go up. i pointed to houses across the street and said they cost $500,000 and asked him what the monthly payment would be. he didn't know. i told him my rent for a 3 BR / 2BA apt is $1000 a month. i told him the INTEREST alone on a half million home would be probably twice that. he didn't get it. he still told me i should have bought a house. -hack

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24937)	3/4/2005 2:25:05 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Get Ready: Gas Prices Could Jump Nearly a Quarter (2005-03-04) NEW CANAAN, Conn., Mar 04, 2005 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- Soaring crude oil costs are expected to drive up U.S. gasoline prices 24 cents a gallon the next few days, USA Today reported Friday. publicbroadcasting.net

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24937)	3/4/2005 5:39:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

CBO: Bush plan creates $394B fiscal ´05 deficit Friday, March 4, 2005 10:13:34 PM forexstreet.com Bush plan creates $394B fiscal '05 deficit WASHINGTON (AFX) - President Bush's budget plan will result in a $394 billion deficit this fiscal year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Friday That's smaller than the White House's projected $427 billion shortfall in its fiscal 2006 budget submission last month. In fiscal 2006, which begins Oct. 1, the CBO estimates the deficit would total $332 billion, compared to a $390 billion White House forecast "The economy is in full swing, jobs are being created and the deficit projections continue to fall," said House Budget Committee Chairman Jim Nussle, R-Iowa. Nussle said he will submit his own budget plan next week, which "will promote continued growth, continued strength and restrained spending." Democrats said CBO analysis hardly presents an optimistic picture "CBO's analysis shows that under the Administration's policies, the annual deficit never falls below $229 billion over the next 10 years, and all $2.5 trillion of the Social Security Trust Fund surplus will be borrowed and spent to cover deficits in the administration's budgets," said Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee The CBO notes that the Bush budget doesn't include any figures related to Bush's call to add private-investment accounts to Social Security. The White House separately estimated that borrowing costs for that plan would total $754 billion from 2009 to 2015. Analysts estimate the costs could total $2 trillion over the first full decade of an accounts plan The Bush budget plan also omits any estimate of the cost of ongoing military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan for 2006. The CBO analysis sees the deficit at $246 billion in fiscal 2009, which would leave Bush on track toward his goal to halve the deficit from an earlier $521 billion projection - which proved to be too high -- in fiscal 2004. Critics note the administration isn't on track to halve the deficit from the actual 2004 gap of $412 billion CBO estimates that in the decade from fiscal 2006 through 2015, annual deficits would total $2.58 trillion, about $1.6 trillion more than CBO projected when it issued its own baseline report in January. The White House projections go out only five years Most of the increase comes from the extension of Bush's first-term tax cuts, all of which are otherwise slated to expire by 2011

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24937)	3/4/2005 5:50:48 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Fed´s Stern not worried about inflation Friday, March 4, 2005 10:19:57 PM Fed's Stern not worried about inflation CHICAGO (AFX) -- Broad-based inflation pressures are not yet bubbling up in the U.S. economy, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Gary Stern told a conference of financial analysts on Friday "I don't see inflation pressures building in the near term," said Stern, who holds a vote on the Fed's rotating interest-rate panel in 2005. Stern acknowledged that core inflation, or prices outside of the volatile food and energy categories, crept higher in 2004, but "right in line" with recent history Inflation remains a wild card for economic growth, Fed interest-rate policy and financial markets. Moderate inflation to date has allowed the central bank to nudge interest rates higher gradually rather than aggressively and to more easily telegraph its intended policy moves to the markets. Low inflation has also held down longer-term rates, allowing the borrowing and spending spigots to remain open. But investors digested confusing inflation news this week The core personal consumption expenditure price index within the Commerce Department's latest consumer spending report rose 0.3 percent. It was the biggest gain for prices outside of the volatile food and energy categories since October 2001. The core rate, which is a favorite inflation barometer of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and others at the central bank, is now up 1.6 percent on a year-over-year basis, matching the high for this economic recovery. Yet, inflation isn't yet percolating in the labor market. Average hourly earnings were unchanged at $15.90 in February, according to a report released Friday. Over the past year, hourly earnings grew by 2.5 percent, less than the 3 percent rise in the consumer price index. [If one considers the CPI a blatant lie as do many, then wages have fallen off the cliff in this "recovery". Mish] Stern told reporters after his speech on Friday that one month's wage data don't offer a big enough picture. There's a chance that wages will rise and, more importantly, that unit labor costs will accelerate, particularly if work force productivity moderates as its expected to, he said. But, there's an equal chance that higher wages would still be absorbed by compromised profit margins rather than be passed on to consumers and into the broader economy [In short he is clueless. I say wages do NOT rise except for the "well deserving" CEOs with all their stock options to boot. Mish" The regional Fed head said he's not particularly worried about the impact of a weaker dollar in raising inflation risks Although it's hard to pin down the exact reason, a weaker dollar isn't having a discernible impact in raising the cost of imported goods coming into the United States. If imported-good costs do jump it could accelerate the climb in inflation, he said [These guys are really clueless. Try global wage arbitrage and overcapacity because of free flowing money everywhere. Mish] "The pass through [of import costs] has diminished," he said. "But the weaker dollar does change the competitive landscape. [Foreign companies] are not as competitive and that may contribute to more [U.S.] inflation." Growth seen averaging 4% Stern said he sees the U.S. economic expansion on solid ground this year and into next year, with growth averaging "a fully respectable 4 percent" in 2005. Rising energy prices may cap the upside potential for the economy, according to Stern. U.S. budget and trade deficits remain potential problems, he said, but don't pose much risk to the economy in the near term [Good, let's try $60 oil then. Mish] U.S. consumer finances are in relatively healthy shape, he said, when you look at the whole balance sheet. That is, debt levels are up, but so are assets, thanks to equity gains and appreciating home values He also said he doesn't see the immediate threat of a housing market bubble because history indicates that a sudden drop in prices is isolated in certain regions and seldom spreads throughout the national housing market [This is where I have to call the clown a moron. Mish] Favors inflation target Stern told the group that although much debate remains, he's considering "ever more seriously" the benefits of a shift at the Fed toward using a specific inflation target The subject has entered into Fed discussions more frequently over the past several months The Fed has long maintained that price stability is one of its key objectives but it's stopped short of adopting a set inflation target such as that in use at the European Central Bank and other of the world's largest central banks Stern didn't say what his inflation target might be or over what time period it would be applied He said he's warming to the idea because of the reputation for price stability that he says the Fed has achieved An inflation target wouldn't be used "to fix something that's broken, rather to lock in the benefits of the past," he said forexstreet.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24937)	3/4/2005 6:07:47 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

An “Unofficial” Leading Indicator Is Flashing Yellow northerntrust.com

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (24937)	3/4/2005 9:35:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

THE WEEKLY Grain Report CORN: Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Friday, March 4th and this is my weekly review. Demand fundamentals had very little effect on pricing this week. Our Monday weekly inspection report showed 31.6 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 24 the week prior but under a year ago of 44 m.b. Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 811 t.t. of corn was sold last week, down 11% from the week prior. Asian sales were decent at 482 t.t. We need 1.2 m.t. or more sold weekly to be price bullish. View this week's demand signals as neutral to mildly bearish. As I noted on my Wednesday report, corn's upswing was solely influenced by the bean rally. The majority of the trade looks to resell corn when beans are finished due to the thinking that our carry over or ending stocks figure will climb and next year's carry over, "weather permitting", will be greater as well on an increase in acres going to seed this year. Some suggest the March 31st planting intension report will show a acreage increase this year of 1 to 3 m.a. Even with a sharp bean rally Monday if they see dry Brazilian weekly weather, I would look to sell strength in the May contract. With stops over 2.26. WHEAT: Demand signals for the week were all bearish as price hikes chased importers to the sidelines. Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 22.3 m.b. were inspected for near term export, about unchanged from the week prior. Thursday's weekly export sales report put sales last week at 453 t.t. down 17% from the week prior and 20% under a weak four week average. With world stocks high U.S. wheat prices need to push lower to find demand. Wheat has enjoyed a nice short covering rally into the last half of February thanks to our bean rally pulling all feed grains with it but March looks to end differently. The March 31st acreage report looks to show a increase in spring wheat plantings this spring as traders shift bean acres over to avoid the costly chemical application to ward off Asian rust disease expected to hit midwest farm lands this season. Additionally, our winter crop breaks dormancy in our western plains in March. The winter brought ample moisture to our subsoil and the crop went dormant in November at 76% in good to excellent condition versus the two preceding years of 50% and 61%. Of course if April and May bring drought prices will be off to the races ahead of the start of our June harvest. Sell strength or buy the April 3.25 wheat put for 3 or 4 cents and hold until it expires on March 24th. A higher trade Monday on a bean rally looks to be very limited. BEAN: The demand side reports on the week truly reflected the fear over production in South America as drought continues. Importers have rushed in to book U.S. bean shipments on fear Brazil may fall short on goals. Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 27.3 m.b. were inspected for near term export, up from 18 a year ago and equal our four week average. Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 651 t.t. were sold last week up from 426 the week prior and 37% over our four week average. China was in for 293 t.t. versus 130 the week prior. Now, do not get exited about demand as these are false signals. Normally this time of year we are facing the start of another record bean harvest out of Brazil and Asian markets that traditionally overbook U.S. bean sales in January and February start to cancel previous purchases and switch to Brazil where beans traditionally sell at a discount to U.S. prices. Brazilian beans are always cheaper at harvest than U.S. beans because Brazil stores no excess grain, it goes from the field to the port. To insure grain does not sit in the field to rot they always post their cash price at a minimum of $6. per ton under any U.S. posted price. This year we have yet to see cancellations as drought continues to cut their yields up until March 15th. It is all but certain that cancellations are coming and the current demand surge is a false demand signal. This rally is all fear trading as the supply curve on the chart heads down the price curve goes up. This will end at the end of the growing cycle March 15th. May beans pushed to a five month high of 6.35 this week as dry conditions were to prevail through Sunday. Thursday saw our first down Thursday in a month after overnight satellite data suggested Brazil could see its appreciable rain event in over a month next Thursday to Saturday. Though it is too far off to know certain rain totals, funds fat with profits and an end to the growing season in sight, traded fear before fact. Friday saw two sided trade as weather forecasters split on rain or no rain. Wxrisk.com sees dry weather. If right May beans will gap higher Monday making new highs. If your long take profits and sell short on a lower close. It looks like funds are about to give up their long position they built, now that the end of brazil's growing season is in sight. Consider this on a Monday rally, take your long profits and buy a April 6.30 put. It settled at 21 cents but could be 12 or 13 cents on a rally.