Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (60711)	3/4/2005 6:43:22 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

David, I off-loaded half of my PTF, VKR, AVN on the Toronto Exchange, and doubled up on APF, CLL, DEC, BVI last night. I will post to Pezz later for marking the copy book. I fear you are right :0) Some big folks in HK have net zero on oil majors, and net short on housing. The order of battle is now set. Tomorrow I will blog my recent trip and conversations on China. Have both positives/constructives and negatives/destructives, and on balance, bleakness and despair. Chugs, Jay

To: Taikun who wrote (60711)	3/4/2005 7:36:35 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, Today was a milestone for me. I added WTO (for the share appreciaion potential, mkt cap/ est recoverable boe of $1.50, and potential to convert to trust, where mkt cap/est recoverable boe would approach SU, COS.UN and $2.25-$2.30. Adding WTO means I now own shares in each and every oil sands near-pure resource play (where the oil sands is a significant part of mkt cap). I'll list them: COS/OST.UN ERF.UN DCE.TO PBG.TO CLL.TO UTS.TO CWPC.OB POU.TO OPC.TO BVI.TO and these majors HSE.TO CNQ I realize IMO.TO, PCA.TO have big oil sands operations but their conventional operations are so huge the oil sands becomes a small part. For example, UTS way outperformed its major partner, PCA.TO, and I just want to buy cheap barrels in the ground. I feel like I'm somehow in a time machine, back to the early days of Saudi. Maybe an American engineer saw the potential from those first wells. Mr. 1% Ha ha! When I was in Japan they used to say you get seven chances to make it really big in life. Better count 'one' for oil sands. I think downside is limited. I think in a market selloff if shares became cheap companies would engage poison pills to avoid being taken out (UTS and others have done this), I think the CDN gov't (and maybe Americans) would protect the oil sands from being raided in any market selloff, and if they were raided, preferred suitors would be western oil companies, so hopefully the deal would be done at fair value. Not without risk, but with limited downside. D