Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beobe who wrote (27816)	3/4/2005 3:37:54 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

Having zero debt's the most important thing if Mish is right. Sounds like you're as ready as anyone....

To: Beobe who wrote (27816)	3/4/2005 3:53:22 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

This "mammoth credit crunch", "train wreck", "K winter", "end of the world as we know it", etc. scenario has been predicted on this thread for several years. No doubt there will be a massive cleansing of excess debt in coastal bubble markets. If you live in the midwest or are not involved in the real estate biz in the coastal bubble markets you might not even feel the next downturn. In the early 90's commercial real estate across the whole country along with land prices collapsed as well as regional markets like LA and Boston housing prices but life went on with new bull markets in other areas. Gold, next generation tech and life sciences as well as Texas real estate or other very depressed housing markets that you are familiar with might be good plays.

To: Beobe who wrote (27816)	3/4/2005 4:04:27 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

the wreck is happening right now since end 2000, consumer debt is up 24% since end 2000, mortgage debt is up 42% since end 2000, US mfg cap utilizaion has been under 80% since end 2000, US gasoline prices up 40% since end 2000 to spring 2004, US consumer debt up $331 billion since end 2000 to spring 2004, Chinese trade gap up $322 billion yup, that is hemorrhage with China drawing blood from Uncle Sam on his back it is accelerating from summer 2004 to present, US consumer debt up $42B more from summer 2004 to present, Chinese trade gap up $117B more since end 2000, wages rising half as fast as producer prices since end 2000, wages rising 1/5-th as fast as energy costs since end 2000, jobless rate has been around 9.0% (divide USGovt unemploymt rate by participation rate) the crackup is happening right under your nose you must believe the USGovt growth story and Greenscheiss healthy USEconomic picture so do you believe inflated assets never go into retreat? first evidence of crackup is likely to occur in China / jim

To: Beobe who wrote (27816)	3/4/2005 6:00:22 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

This "mammoth credit crunch", "train wreck", "K winter", "end of the world as we know it", etc. scenario has been predicted on this thread for several years. When will it happen? More to the point how can I be prepared (if that's possible). I have zero debt. My house and cars are paid for. I have some money (25% of total) in Vang GNMA and money mkts. Regards. Well as to "when" I have to say "who knows"? I will say that the longer the delay the bigger the bust. BTW everyone is NOT predicting Kwinter here. Many think we are entering hyperinflation and Argentina or Weimar republic models. I disagree Having zero debt IS being prepared. Having cash savings IS being prepared. Having some money in treasuries IS being prepared. As for Money markets, unless they are specifically in treasuries you have a risk. The risk might be slight but it is there. Look for some posts on this board on Treasury Direct and those are probably safer. Certainly 3mo-6mo or even 1yr treasuries are totally safe. Money is the stock market is decidedly at risk but the Spoos and Dow keep grinding on (for now) Mish