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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20796)	3/4/2005 8:23:38 PM
From: Kevyn Collins-Thompson	Respond to of 78704

Yes, I wince every time I see Costco because it was my first serious value purchase and also my biggest mistake as an investor. I lived in Seattle and knew one of the founders, and after looking into what was going on, I bought a chunk of it in 1992. I bought more later when the price dropped - "the falling knife" - but toward the end of 1995 I lost patience and decided to sell everything for a tax loss. Naturally the stock quintupled in the next 4 years (then again, what stocks didn't?). I got some self-confidence from the fact that my valuation methods seemed fine but felt terrible later that my impatience had thrown away that work. So now I hold much more for the long term and feel happy about rarely selling (though my other mistakes also involved selling too soon..) Kevyn

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20796)	3/4/2005 8:44:40 PM
From: Stewart Whitman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78704

Here's the information for the top scoring stocks reorganized by score. It includes even stocks held by one or two funds. DEL - I suspect that it's going up based on prices paid for timberlands, as well as the improving pulp & paper cycle, and probably due to potential for higher inflation. There seems to be a move on for timber companies to separate their timberlands into REIT-like companies and operating companies (e.g. Boise Cascade - Officemax). So, it's probably more an asset play for most of the value players. CMCSA is a recent Buffett buy. JJZ is really interesting to me. I can see buying close to the current price based on an improving financial condition and it's historical cash flow as well as brand presence. It is the result of the reorganization of U.S. Industries following a lot of restructuring. Lots of debt but it seems manageable. 9 Points Deltic Timber (DEL) - FEVAX LLSCX TASCX Comcast A (CMCSA) - DODGX LLPFX 8.5 Points ChevronTexaco (CVX) - BFLVX DODGX GABEX KDHAX Occidental Petroleum (OXY) - BFLVX SLASX Genuine Parts (GPC) - GABEX Harrah's Entertainment (HET) - WVALX Jacuzzi Brands (JJZ) - LLSCX 8 Points Burlington Resources (BR) - FEVAX GABEX OAKLX McDonald's (MCD) - BRWIX DODGX FEVAX ExxonMobil (XOM) - GABBX GABEX Ingersoll-Rand A (IR) - BRWIX GABBX Petroleum Development (PETD) - BFSVX BRMCX Qualcomm (QCOM) - JAVLX MFOCX 3M Company (MMM) - JAVLX Boston Communications Group (BCGI) - BFSVX Diageo PLC ADR (DEO) - TWEBX Illinois Tool Works (ITW) - TORYX K-Swiss (KSWS) - TASCX Mattel (MAT) - OAKLX PepsiAmericas (PAS) - LLSCX Precision Drilling (PDS) - TASCX Quest Diagnostics (DGX) - KDHAX Reebok International (RBK) - FPPTX Royal Dutch Petroleum ADR (RD) - GABEX Shaw Communications (SJR) - LLSCX Zale (ZLC) - FPPTX 7.5 Points Tyco International (TYC) - BRWIX FEVAX KDHAX LMVTX MSVFX SLASX ConocoPhillips (COP) - BFLVX GABBX GABEX KDHAX SLASX Yum Brands (YUM) - LLPFX MSVFX OAKLX Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) - KDHAX OAKLX Danaher (DHR) - BRWIX SEQUX Texas Industries (TXI) - KSCVX LLSCX Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) - NBFVX Citizens Communications (CZN) - WVALX Computer Sciences (CSC) - DODGX EOG Resources (EOG) - SLASX Gap (GPS) - OAKLX Hasbro (HAS) - LLSCX Maverick Tube (MVK) - BFSVX Murphy Oil (MUR) - UMESX Pogo Producing (PPP) - TASCX Ruddick (RDK) - LLSCX Sapient (SAPE) - BFSVX SeaChange International (SEAC) - BRMCX Steak n Shake (SNS) - NBFVX Steiner Leisure (STNR) - BRMCX Suncor Energy (SU) - UMESX Thomas Nelson (TNM) - BFSVX Unocal (UCL) - DODGX Whiting Petroleum (WLL) - TASCX 7 Points Walt Disney (DIS) - GABBX GABEX LLPFX MSVFX TORYX Honeywell International (HON) - GABBX GABEX TORYX Phelps Dodge (PD) - BFLVX BRWIX UMESX Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) - GABBX LLPFX UMESX Telephone and Data Systems (TDS) - LLPFX MSVFX WVALX AutoZone (AZO) - JAVLX SEQUX Cendant (CD) - BFLVX GABBX Dow Chemical (DOW) - DODGX GABBX Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold B (FCX) - TEMTX UMESX H & R Block (HRB) - OAKLX SLASX Newmont Mining (NEM) - FEVAX TEMTX Nike B (NKE) - JAVLX MFOCX Texas Instruments (TXN) - GABEX JAVLX Washington Post (WPO) - TEMTX WVALX Alcon (ACL) - JAVLX Amedisys (AMED) - BRMCX Amerada Hess (AHC) - BFLVX AmerisourceBergen (ABC) - KDHAX Anheuser-Busch Companies (BUD) - TORYX Avaya (AV) - BRWIX BP PLC ADR (BP) - UMESX Borders Group (BGP) - KDHAX ChoicePoint (CPS) - BRWIX Devon Energy (DVN) - SLASX Ducommun (DCO) - BFSVX Fisher Communications (FSCI) - WEMMX Ford Motor (F) - BFLVX General Motors (GM) - LLPFX Harley-Davidson (HDI) - SEQUX Hub Group A (HUBG) - BRMCX Idacorp (IDA) - FEVAX Juniper Networks (JNPR) - BFLVX LifeCore Biomedical (LCBM) - WEMMX McKesson (MCK) - LMVTX Merck (MRK) - KDHAX Newfield Exploration (NFX) - UMESX Northrop Grumman (NOC) - GABBX OMI (OMM) - BFSVX Pantry (PTRY) - BFSVX Petsmart (PETM) - SEQUX Premcor (PCO) - UMESX Priority Healthcare (PHCC) - NBFVX Research In Motion Ltd (RIMM) - JAVLX SPX (SPW) - FEVAX Smith International (SII) - UMESX Southern (SO) - BFLVX Teva Pharmaceutical Industries ADR (TEVA) - BRWIX Walgreen (WAG) - SEQUX Weider Nutrition International (WNI) - WEMMX Western Gas Resources (WGR) - KSCVX XTO Energy (XTO) - UMESX 7 Points (1 Misses) First Data (FDC) - MSVFX OAKLX TORYX Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) - OAKLX UST, Inc. (UST) - KDHAX Walter Industries (WLT) - KSCVX

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20796)	3/18/2005 12:01:45 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78704

Partially OT maybe. I decided to go into some oil play (maybe at the top, who knows) and bought a very minor position in IGE. I decided that I am not comfortable with PFE CEO salary and benefits and crossed PFE from my "interesting at this price" list. Jurgis

To: Paul Senior who wrote (20796)	8/16/2005 11:31:04 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78704

Bought 1/2 positions in travel stocks TSG and EXPE. Both are good business with high FCF (low capex and working ) capital. They are the leaders in their respective markets - TSG own the market leading SABRE booking system and the Travelocity website (23% market share). EXPE own Exedia and Hotel.com website with more than 40% market shares. Both stocks are cheap, IMO. TSG trades at a PE of 13, EXPE trades at and EV/EBITDA of around 11, if my calculation is correct. EXPE stock has fallen from grace after the spinoff from Interactive, which is a good chance to own a stake in the most attractive IACI business at a reasonable price. I admit that the "noncash" stock option expense is fairly high, but that number has been coming down quickly over the years. I still need to investigate EXPE numbers some more, the EBITDA number above is only a rough estimates based on the SEC prospectus. IACI's number are very convoluted through acquisitions etc. and EXPE's as a recent spinoff is difficult to evaluate as a standalone entity as well but it's fairly obvious that EXPE generate a fair amount of FCF. To raise some cash, i sold my starter position in BFCF at a modest profit. I also sold some VIA but still hold a full size position (I was overweight, when the stock went to 32$). I think marketswill offer some bargains in September.