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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (27857)	3/4/2005 9:18:17 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 110194

yeah, I've followed MNG. Thanks to you I'm in at 1.07. Don't you think we're going to be in a 2003-like move in the HUI? stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyiay[d20030204,20040204][pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!b50!b100!b200!f][vc60][iLa4,9,5!Lh5,5!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo14!Lb14!Le5,10,1!Lc10][J16818256,Y]&pref=G since overall we're in the early stages, I'm inclined to ride out the dips unless things get out of hand, in which case I'll take off a little. [edit] for a move like CNQ I'll be taking some off the table I have enough trouble managing my short positions. <g>

To: russwinter who wrote (27857)	3/5/2005 8:39:09 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

this saville piece gold-eagle.com ties in pretty well with what you said about copper. I painfully remember what happened with the silver stocks last spring, as I own a lot of paas. I'm not a huge saville fan, but when the two of you are in sync my ears perk up. please let me know when you've unloaded your nto.

To: russwinter who wrote (27857)	3/5/2005 8:50:53 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Pollyanna as Contrarian: what do you think? To Banc of America economist Joseph Quinlin, the U.S. will remain a magnet for other people's money, notwithstanding our towering deficits. Why foreign buyers of U.S. Treasuries won't bail. "The process of central-bank diversification out of some dollar assets will occur at a glacial pace and not be a disruptive force to global financial markets," he says. "The U.S. remains the most attractive destination for foreign capital." Much has been made of the flight of U.S. and other foreign capital and jobs to China, which is transforming China into the so-called "factory of the world." But foreign direct investment in China, which topped FDI in the U.S. in 2003, last year totaled only half the $121 billion thought to have been invested here (final figures are pending). [Darffot comment: yes, but if you look at FDI as a percentage of GDP, China is much higher. this matters, because for any country there is a limit on the amount of capital formation which can happen annually, as a percentage of GDP.] In fact, foreign direct investment in the U.S. has exceeded FDI in China in four of the past five years, by a substantial margin -- a phenomenon that goes unheeded by what Quinlan calls the "Sell America" crowd. Foreign direct investment is a composite of unsentimental business decisions. And there's no mystery why foreign multinationals find the U.S. more attractive than China, in Quinlan's view: America has greater per-capita wealth; a world-class infrastructure; an entrepreneurial culture; leadership in technological innovation; a large and liquid financial structure; minimal government interference; and a transparent legal system. [Emerging Markets] True, China has a huge, low-cost labor force and a rapidly developing consumer market. But its banking sector is fragile and its service sector remains underdeveloped and largely closed to outsiders. There's little transparency at either the government or corporate level. Intellectual property rights are subject to piracy, a particular problem for companies with cutting-edge products and technologies. Mainland China's infrastructure, although improving, is still "a work in progress," according to Quinlan. Finally, consumer demand is stunted by the fact that gross domestic product per capita is about $1,200, compared with roughly $40,000 in the U.S. A weak dollar also works in America's favor by making U.S. asset prices and the cost of labor far more attractive than in recent years, particularly for European multinationals, Quinlan says. Too, foreign affiliates in the U.S. have been harvesting fat profits after currency translations. According to a Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate cited by Quinlan, such foreign affiliates saw a 57% jump in profits in last year's first nine months, compared with the same period in 2003. More income leads to more money reinvested in foreign operations in the United States. Conversely, many foreign affiliates in China have reported weak or declining earnings in the past year, as a result of tightening credit controls, heightened competition and excess capacity on the mainland. "When you lump all these factors together, the U.S. has a real edge," Quinlan says. "Corporate-investment flows into the U.S. represent a real vote of confidence, and should help bolster the nation's competitiveness and the U.S. dollar in the years ahead." online.barrons.com