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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carlos Blanco who wrote (27861)	3/4/2005 9:34:09 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

reco by frank holmes on bloomberg with a $10 target say what? dd you type that correctly?

To: Carlos Blanco who wrote (27861)	3/5/2005 9:50:29 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Thanks for that important info, as to me it seems to tie in perfectly with my quasi-IBD theory too. I might also add that announcements on Aqua Rica may be forthcoming in this time frame too, and that's the value added component of NTO. If this is the case, then in my mind NTO (my largest resource stock holding because of price appreciation, my basis is about 2.10 US) now becomes just a chart play. Typically price and volume front runs these index placements, so one might consider a price spike exit about March 18 or very shortly thereafter. I would also expect the 3/9 earnings report to be quite spectacular. It's really a fairly easy exercise to predict that, but in this environment if NTO is about to enter "institutional" status, you could get Pig Men "analyst" recommendations (see my CNQ example, and Frank Holmes) right at the point the IBD momo people get sucked in. The purpose of this is distribution. Collaboration of that would insider sales, which I'll bet starts really picking up now throughout the resource sector. I'll come back with some more work on this later. It's important to understand this process in all sectors one plays in, and not get seduced into thinking resources are any different, just because we here typically are commodity bulls. Just remember, the stock may have been good to you, you may like it, it may fit your world view, but it doesn't know you own it, and there is a price to own or sell everything. It's important to separate self in these exercises. For me tails are hard to play though, as when I get a winner I tend to be a base buyer, be patient all though the build-up, and then pull the sell trigger somewhat early on in these parabolic moves. A glance at the NTO chart, stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G however, tells us that the tail is still relatively young. These events can sometimes be real time compressed though, so if it goes extreme vertical look out for a reversal. Fundamentally NTO did a large private placement at three bucks. That's both good and bad. It puts some support under the company and positions them better to develop Aqua Rica or at least give them more ability to deal for it. But it also has serves to dilute them, as the shares move into the more rarified air well above 3.00, and thus limit the upside fundamentally. Here we can also see management both positioning themselves for some kind of payoff. One could also argue they are being self-serving. Again, this is a footprint of a distribution phase: biz.yahoo.com