The post-September 11, 2001, era seems to have considerably weakened the impasse-oriented aspect of Arab politics. One example of this new development is emerging in Lebanon: it is likely to win independence from a long-standing Syrian occupation, and soon.
Now comes Arab pressure
By Ehsan Ahrari
Now Saudi Arabia and Egypt have initiated the important phase of Arab pressure on Syria to pull out of Lebanon. If Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had any doubts about the meaning of the growing Western chorus for Syria to withdraw its 15,000 troops from Lebanon, he should have no doubts about it now. Still he is stalling, reportedly releasing trial balloons about what his optimal choice should be: perhaps pull out most of his troops, but still maintain a foothold in Lebanon.
The post-September 11, 2001, era seems to have considerably weakened the impasse-oriented aspect of Arab politics. One example of this new development is emerging in Lebanon: it is likely to win independence from a long-standing Syrian occupation, and soon.
To everyone's surprise, a major change is in the making after the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri two weeks ago. Persuading Syria to get out of Lebanon would not have been easy before that development; however, the Middle Eastern version of the "Velvet Revolution" - or the "Cedar Revolution" to be precise - is about to materialize, with the United States' help, and now, with visible help from some Arab states. America's military power is lurking in the background, at least tacitly, signaling Damascus that any attempt to crush that Cedar Revolution will be met with equally brutal force.
The Lebanese government of pro-Syrian Prime Minister Omar Karameh resigned on February 28. There was enormous jubilation in the streets of Beirut. People smelled the crumbling of Syrian hegemony in their country. Emile Lahoud, the Syrian-backed president of Lebanon - whose tenure was illegally extended by three years at Syria's behest - may be contemplating his next move: buying a luxurious bungalow on the outskirts of Paris or elsewhere in southern France.
The international community spoke at the United Nations on September 2, 2004, when it passed Security Council Resolution 1559, calling for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon and restoring its sovereignty. The fact that the US and France cooperated for the passage of that resolution spoke volumes about how much resentment was building up in the West about the Syrian resolve to maintain its occupation of Lebanon forever, if possible. The sad part was that there was no resentment of any sort in other Arab capitals regarding Syrian occupation of a sister Arab state.
Now Arab leaders seem to understand the power of the information age that is posing an increasing threat to their old thinking about forces of change. Their old attitude was if you ignore those forces, or suppress them long enough, they will go away. Now they know it is an entirely different era, and a very different ball game in Lebanon. The assassination of Hariri created a firestorm of protest inside Lebanon, a reality that is being closely watched by the world at large. In addition, given that US forces were in Iraq, Syria could not have cavalierly suppressed this near-popular uprising against its occupation of Lebanon.
To be sure, there is no credible evidence that Syria killed Hariri, who opposed the presence of Syrian troops in Lebanon. However, it remains a major suspect, its vehement denials to the contrary notwithstanding. At this point, even the absence of credible evidence implicating Syria is not helping that country. What is important is that if Hariri's death could become a reason for building the momentum for the liberation of Lebanon from Syrian occupation, the Lebanese popular movement is determined to exploit it to the fullest extent. The US is wholly supporting Lebanese public opinion in this regard.
President George W Bush kept the demand of Syrian withdrawal very much in the international limelight during his recent European tour. In this information age, the Lebanese masses are fully aware that international pressure is working in their favor. They had witnessed what the Velvet Revolution achieved in Ukraine only a few weeks ago. Thus they are also determined to use Hariri's assassination as one more reason to tell the world that they want Syria to get out of Lebanon. The battle cry of the Lebanese masses is simply "Enough". By that they mean enough of Lebanese humiliation under Syrian occupation. Who knows, this struggle to end Syrian occupation might turn into a real force for democracy in that country.
The gathering momentum of the Cedar Revolution or people's power in Lebanon has sweeping potential implications for the Middle East at large. Where will it stop? Its immediate purpose is to expel Syria from Lebanon. Then what? If Lebanon were to hold free elections in the coming months, the Hezbollah Party is likely to emerge as a major political force. The Bush administration must know that. What are the implications of that development to relations between Lebanon and Israel? One possibility - a remote one, but a feasible possibility nevertheless - is that there might be some sort of Lebanese-Israeli rapprochement. Syria might be thinking about just such a development in the mid-range future.
Assad may not want to see that development materialize, because Syria had high hopes of using the "Hezbollah card" to push Israel into withdrawing from the Golan Heights some day. Once Syrian forces get out of Lebanon, there is no likelihood that Assad will be able to use the Hezbollah card for the resolution of the Syrian-Israeli conflict. It will be a new ball game for Syria, and right now it does not like the odds that are piling up against it.
Now Syria wishes to maintain at least 3,000 troops and early warning devices in Lebanon. It already has radar stations in the Dah el-Baider mountains, on the Syrian-Israeli borders. However, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah is insisting on complete Syrian withdrawal. Perhaps the Saudi intelligence is also deeply suspicious of Syrian complicity in the assassination of Hariri, who held Saudi citizenship and was close to the Saudi royal family.
Assad still seems to be living, at least in his own mind, in the Cold War years. As an apparent stalling move, he sent his foreign minister to Moscow for consultation, as if Russia still holds any cards in the world balance of power, as did the old Soviet Union. Prince Abdullah and President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt know better. They are hoping their description of what is at stake for Syria made ample sense to Assad.
There is no doubt that Syria will come out the big loser from this episode. The definite winner is Lebanon, when (not if) Syria pulls out its forces. The second winner will be the US. The Bush administration is already claiming responsibility of its own role for putting pressure on Syria. No one can deny the US a major credit in that regard.
The presence of US forces in Iraq is making Damascus very nervous. In fact, an argument can be made that as Washington turns up the heat on Assad to pull out of Lebanon, he is likely to suffer from the same nervous syndrome that forced Muammar Gaddafi of Libya to completely abandon his nuclear and chemical programs. The Libyan dictator was reported to be having visions of himself in a small cell somewhere, awaiting a trial, as Saddam Hussein is today. In all likelihood, Assad might be envisioning a similar future for himself, if he forces America's hand on Lebanon.
That might be one reason why Assad told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica that Syria would require "serious guarantees". Undoubtedly, such guarantees should come from the US. In the absence of the specifics of such guarantees, it is safe to assume that Assad, like Gaddafi, is seeking guarantees against regime change. It is also possible that he wants Washington to become visibly active in starting negotiations on the future of the Golan Heights. What Assad may also know is that now his negotiating position has become too weak and flimsy. Right now he should only concentrate on avoiding the potential of regime change by getting out of Lebanon, and soon.
Ehsan Ahrari, PhD, is an Alexandria, Virginia, US-based independent strategic analyst. Please click here to visit his website.
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