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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (27921)	3/6/2005 9:08:41 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I don't think Nolan's analysis is correct on the iron ore point. Japan was the first to reluctantly take the big price increases, and it was dictated to them by the big Aussie majors. Message 21086248 Once Japan took the price, China had no choice but to accept it too, to ensure supply. The iron ore and coal situation is getting very severe. I've always used copper as the canary in the mine shaft for the hit the wall Train Wreck, but iron ore and coal look even worse (and copper is potentially bad if there is a disruption). All these input goods are just one mine slide or geopolitical flame up away from making China look like Germany and Japan in late 1944, when their war making supplies were cut off. I suspect they are already there in fact. I can't believe how little decent analysis is done on this. I would challenge anyone to show me how Chinese enterprises can be profitable selling to WMT in this set up? They are surviving only because of loan subsidy, made in an environment of minimal and corrupt loan standards. Many of these bogus loans are then decoyed into speculation both in Asia and in the US.

To: westpacific who wrote (27921)	3/10/2005 12:23:04 AM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Dollar Declines After Koizumi Says Japan May Consider Diversify Reserves March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped in Asia after Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said his country ``in general' needs to consider diversifying the investment of its foreign reserves. Japan needs to make an ``overall judgment' on how to invest reserves by considering the stability of such investments, he said today at the budget committee of the upper house of the Parliament in Tokyo. The dollar fell 1.4 percent against the euro and the yen on Feb. 22 on a report South Korea's central bank will diversify its currency reserves, a comment clarified by the country later. ``Koizumi's remarks led to concern the money will move away from the U.S. dollar assets, leading to the dollar selling,' said Minoru Shioiri, senior manager of the treasury and foreign exchange division in Tokyo at Mitsubishi Securities Co., a unit of Japan's second-biggest lender. The dollar may fall to near 103 yen today, he said. The dollar dropped to $1.3412 against the euro as at 11:45 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.3391 late yesterday in New York, according to electronic currency-dealing system EBS. It traded at 103.94 yen from 103.93. bloomberg.com