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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: diana g who wrote (39836)	3/6/2005 4:29:58 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206197

diana g, I guess there are several reasons. Let me first say that I chose not to play this cycle because I saw more potential in the IPP recovery cycle so I have not watched the OSX/XNG as close I as would have if I were invested in it and as some here are aware I like concentration. Having said that, this cycle began as a play on NG. Later in the cycle higher oil prices supported higher NG prices and the play changed to be a more of a play on the price of oil. Back in the fall of 2004 the trend of below normal NG storage reversed itself and the trend became one of storage building at above average levels. At the same time the further out future prices for NG were starting to fall faster than the close in months. This typically is a good signal to watch for a top in the cycle. OSX 125 didn't seem that low on a valuation basis because both of the last two cycle highs were during the bubble years in the market. The fact is both the XNG and XOI have broken out above multi cycle highs and the odds have improved that the OSX (which typically lags the E&P stocks)can do the same thing, so OSX 160 would not surprise me. I don't like the risk reward right now in the market in general so I am happy to get my 2-2 1/2% yield on my weekly Dutch auction preferred stock until the odds go back in my favor. Nice to see both you and Slider back, all we need now is Sarge K??? Jim

To: diana g who wrote (39836)	3/6/2005 5:26:58 PM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 206197

PS: Where we are today in the oil cycle is starting a period of declining demand, increasing supplies and at a time when inventories for both oil and NG are way above average. Where we are in the market is at a point in time when the market is fully priced, interest rates and inflation are rising and the stock market is pricing in continued economic growth and low inflation. I've never seen a better time to be sitting in cash. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing. Jim

To: diana g who wrote (39836)	3/7/2005 9:56:07 AM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206197

diana g, Sooner or later oil and NG prices will reflect storage levels. Crude, gasoline and fuel oil are all over their 5 year average and trending higher??? eia.doe.gov NG storage is now 34% above it's 5 year average and also trending higher. americanoilman.homestead.com The only two years that NG storage levels were close to today's levels were in 1999 and 2002??? Just so happens that those were the only two years in the last eight that oil service and energy stocks had major declines. Smart money now short crude futures??? Who do you want to follow, Exxon or the speculator following the tale end of the trend that is about to reverse??? Message 21109766 Jim