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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (39840)	3/6/2005 1:51:04 PM
From: quehubo	Respond to of 206199

I agree that we have to be wary of any indication that will provide a profit taking opportunity. From these levels 15% plus selloffs would still take us down to OSX 120 or so. But you can come up with all sorts of monikers for those who hold strong to the fundamentals, but these naysayers have been predicting a rapid change for years now. They have been wrong consistently and by a wide margin and we have profited tremendously because we bulls have been correct. This article is pinning some hope for the bears it would seem because it says demand rate of change will decrease. It is still growing and it is still another opinion from the type that has been wrong for years. There will be no supply response overwhelming prices for oil or ng for years, only demand to be rationed. That being said I am not ready to keep my hard earned profits on the table all in energy. Demand could be impacted under any number of unexpected events and the darlings of the patch will get whacked just the same.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (39840)	3/8/2005 11:40:27 PM
From: 8bits	Respond to of 206199

"Asian Oil Demand Poised to Slow After a Record 2004" Ok the article indicates that demand GROWTH will slow but overall oil usage will increase. Quite possible but considering the lack of spare capacity we have the supply side of things I don't see an appreciable drop in the price. Record setting Brent Oil during shoulder season...? First it was the terror premium, then it was hedge funds, now what is the excuse..? "China was the driving force behind Asia's demand growth for 2004, contributing 737,000 bpd, equivalent to 72.3% of the region's total increase in consumption, with its "robust economic performance and the corresponding growth in petroleum use in almost every sector of the economy." No surprise here. "He also said China's power shortages in 2004 had temporarily boosted oil demand for power generation. More coal- and gas-fired power plants are scheduled to come on line in China this year, which would significantly impact oil demand for power generation. Over the long run, Brown believes a sustainable growth rate for Chinese oil demand is 350,000 bpd to 400,000 bpd." I've read several articles indicating that China is not able to produce enough coal for it's plants. They even had miners continue working through the Chinese New Year. I've also read that China is expected to dramatically increase it use of automobiles. Where does this figure in the equation..? I hope the author is correct and that oil consumption will slow in Asia considering how constrained the world supply is but at this juncture and for next year or two I don't see an appreciable drop in oil prices. And at current prices (even $5 to $10 below what they are now..) Many oil firms are printing money. Even more so if any hedges they have expire.