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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (39874)	3/7/2005 11:12:34 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 206199

jim p re: 2005 ? CASH & PATIENCE are KING for me. I know what works for me... I like to patiently wait for High Reward:Low/Moderate Risk opportunities and leverage them. Preferably out of favor cyclical sectors at the bottom of the cycle...and there just isn't anything out there that's cheap right now....so I'm trolling for Shorts. If Warren Buffett who is sitting on like $43 Billion in Cash; says he can't find anything to buy at reasonable valuations... who am "I" to question that (vbg)? Lately, I've put my money into real world business's...the market wasn't as attractive as the "real world" of late for me. re: Homebuilders We are finally seeing Realtor DOM (days on the market) & Inventory Numbers Rising, as well as actual pricing change in many markets that finally support a fundamental vs technical, or sentiment driven short play in the Homebuilders imho. You have to respect the positive demographic factors and rates have stayed lower for longer than anyone expected...but, fwiw the signals in Flyover country vs the East & West Coast Markets are very positive for Homebuilder Shorts imho. It's a sector that you just keep banging away at...but, keep respectfull stops...and wait for the turn and then "lean" into it heavy. Fwiw; I used to have a Mortgage Brokerage Office...worked in the business from the early-mid 90's - sold/exited the industry 18ish months ago when it was in it's "bubble-mania" phase and last week drove by 2 of my former main competitors and they are both "Sub-Leasing" Office Space. Everyone wanted to become a Mortgage Broker, Start/Buy an Office etc... the numbers of companies & individual brokers ramped to ridiculous levels... a huge shakeout is starting in Middle America...and sooner or later the East/West Coast Markets will turn. SubPrime Financials are a great short...I've been short for a while in them. Short - Fannie Mae was my largest single position.... Investigators just found another couple of Billion in Fraud....A couple Billion here, a couple Billion there. People would $#!^ if they knew how much financial engineering and outright fraud existed in the Finance/Mortgage Industry....hugely inflated appraisal valuations are the norm, not the exception...near lunacy in Underwriting/Qualification Standards. Gain on sale accounting is a recepie for disaster... rapid Mortgage Refinancing creates havoc on assumptions that are always too aggressive on Mortgage Portfolio's...rates are going to have to rise... Inflation lags Oil/Commodity Spikes by usually 15-18 months...so people would be prudent in positioning themselves for "Anticipating" Inflation...and not later "Reacting" to it. The market is experiencing a significant rotational shift here... lots of opportunities developing. re: OSX I'm just begining to "test the tape" on some OSX shorts. No major portfolio bet...respectfull stops and just the 1st fade of the 1st Rally that looks over-extended... and I think that's the right term here...."over-extended". - given that; I like the short side. When, not if... some early cycle Institutional investors are going to take significant profits in Energy Stocks and when that begins to happen the Market Makers will use that opp to take out the "stops" from the small spec traders and the Hedge Funds will throttle that move...I merely hope to get my small piece - not being greedy. No one that I know...thinks the OSX is rolling over to 60 anytime soon... but, 10-15-20 % sector retracements are the norm. I wouldn't argue against the OSX going to new highs because of the amount of speculative money in the market...but, not in a straight line and it's very reasonable that if the Global & US Economies slow...given Inventory Levels...that the Energy Stocks and Crude & Natural Gas could trade in a downward channel for a while. Commercial vs Spec Interest in Crude Oil couldn't be any better for anyone Shorting Energy...a double top in Crude looks like a reasonable "WAG" here. good luck

To: jim_p who wrote (39874)	3/7/2005 11:18:53 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 206199

Jim Bob, Ready to gamble going short the homeboys or the patch? Only for the real gamblers. Homeboys are still making new highs, that is, higher highs with higher lows. Despite what a recent returnee might say about anticipate vs react, with strong trending instruments (OIH, BZH, etc.) it is a form of suicide to anticipate where a top might be. My mantra is: anticipate no tops or bottoms, react to what the public record (the chart) is saying. I think you wrote to me in early February to ask if I thought a top might be in for TOL (then at $82). My answer then was no, my answer now is no. A top is never formed by simply a high price, or even a parabolic curve. It takes an extinguishing of buyers. As for the patch, OIH is retracing today, much as it did 6 days ago. It wasn't the top then, and most likely it's not the top today. Kb