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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (28019)	3/7/2005 3:53:09 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

What is the price tag of a systemic failure? Ramsey do you recommend good old cash until things get real bad? Though I do not think a deflation or depression is the likely outcome I do give it a much greater chance than any positive outcome without major damage to the economy. Since I think it is a stagflationary rolling depression and a currency crisis somewhere in there with a long term natural resource and energy boom I look more to gold and Texas real estate for the next 5-7 year period as best bets. Cash in perhaps CD's of 1-2 yr duration will surely outperform coastal real estate, large cap and financial stocks in any of our scenarios.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (28019)	3/7/2005 4:04:47 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Consumer credit rose $11.5 billion January, compared to an upwardly revised $8.7 billion increase in December. Nonrevolving credit rose $6.2 billion, a surprise given soft vehicle sales in the month. Year-on-year, total consumer credit is up 6.6% with nonrevolving up 5.6% and revolving up 8.1%. Market Consensus Before Announcement Consumer credit increased $3.1 billion in December despite a spurt in motor vehicle sales for the month. Perhaps December credit expansion will be revised higher. In contrast, motor vehicle sales plunged in January, which should hamper total credit growth. Consumer credit Consensus Forecast for Jan 05: $5 billion mam.econoday.com