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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (103607)	3/8/2005 1:08:31 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793822

"Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive," he wrote, "But to be young was very heaven!" What a great line from Wordsworth!

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (103607)	3/8/2005 1:19:47 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793822

Rubin sets forth my views exactly.

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (103607)	4/13/2005 7:39:51 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793822

Here is the latest from Rubin. The Region: A weakening leader Barry Rubin, THE JERUSALEM POST Apr. 11, 2005 jpost.com Three months after Mahmoud Abbas's assuming leadership of the Palestinian Authority, the results are disappointing. True, he faces a difficult job. And he is following the safest strategy. But what matters now are results. With results, Abbas can use his popular mandate, international support and Israeli flexibility to reorganize the PA, mobilize Fatah, turn his people toward peace and create a success story in the Gaza Strip. Abbas's big achievement has been the cease-fire, but it was gained because almost all forces on the Palestinian side were exhausted and ready for a break. Having lost the war, they were happy to end it; at least until the next time violence seems appealing. Again, Abbas's strategy makes sense. He faces three serious oppositions: Islamists (mainly Hamas), Fatah insurgents (the Aksa Martyrs Brigades), and Fatah hard-liners (many of his own colleagues). But his policy of appeasing them will make his job tougher. Perhaps it is already too late for him to change course and emerge powerful and triumphant. Instead, he too often imitates Yasser Arafat's old approach: Make an announcement – condemning terrorism, warning extremists, denouncing corruption or calling for reform of the security forces – then do nothing. Blaming things on Israel is going to be hard. The Israeli government has released prisoners, wants to turn over West Bank towns, supports the PA getting more money, has stopped pursuing wanted men and is ready to leave the Gaza Strip. About all Israel can be accurately accused of is building some new settlement housing in very limited areas of the West Bank. Let's see how the new Palestinian leadership stands on the main issues: Cease-fire. Abbas has helped persuade Palestinian factions to agree to a cease-fire with Israel. But much of the credit actually goes to effective Israeli security measures, as well to the self-interest of badly weakened Palestinian groups. Fighting lawlessness and disarming militants. In this context, who will gain popular credit when Israel turns over the whole Gaza Strip to the PA – Abbas or the gunmen? Will PA security forces be ready to face down the militias and really take control of all this territory in order to govern it? Reforming security forces. One or two incompetent and dishonest commanders have been removed, but no real step has been taken toward restructuring the security forces or ensuring their discipline. Weapons' smuggling. Some attempts have been made to reduce bringing arms across the border but munitions are still coming in, many delivered to Abbas's enemies. Corruption. A small number of offenders are being investigated or threatened with prosecution, but mostly it's business as usual. Incitement. A decline in calls for immediate attacks on Jews and support for the cease-fire are short-term improvements. But continued insistence on the illegitimacy of Israel and its future destruction and the extolling of violence bodes ill. Weekly sermons by PA-appointed and financed clerics still include blood-curdling hatred of Jews and Americans. Rebuilding Fatah. With elections due in July – and especially now that Hamas is running candidates – revitalizing Fatah should be top priority. Yet despite talk about it, the level of passivity is incredible. Fatah is headed for a disaster both regarding internal unity and its appeal to the people as a whole. Controlling Fatah insurgents and Islamists. Abbas has talked to a lot of people but made zero progress. Personal support from the Arab world. Abbas has not gotten strong endorsements or backing from Arab rulers, aside from Egypt – a big failure since success here might not have been so difficult. Again the task is difficult. Taking strong action against hard-liners, criminals and terrorists would provoke a strong reaction. Yet absent from any calculations has been an attempt to appeal to the masses, over the heads of the militants. Where are the ringing speeches in which Abbas could say: "Yes, I arrested 200 people on corruption charges and seized Hamas's weapons stockpiles – but I did it to ensure that bullies would not shoot up your streets, demand protection money and steal bread out of your mouths"? Where is this new vision of a Palestinian future: "The time has come to make peace with Israel and end the conflict forever. Getting an independent Palestinian state where we can live in peace and happiness is worth giving up our claim to the rest of the land"? Failure to fight corruption and anarchy or take the steps needed to get Israel to relinquish West Bank towns will mean loss of the chance to mobilize popular support behind the new leader. Yes, Abbas has taken the safer road and avoided risks. Yet rejecting all confrontation now and failing to consolidate power vigorously only ensures a later confrontation in which he will be fighting from a position of weakness. The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. This article can also be read at jpost.com