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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 1:21:00 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Credit Card Penalties, Fees Bury Debtors
Senate Nears Action On Bankruptcy Curbs

By Kathleen Day and Caroline E. Mayer
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, March 6, 2005; Page A01

For more than two years, special-education teacher Fatemeh Hosseini worked a second job to keep up with the $2,000 in monthly payments she collectively sent to five banks to try to pay $25,000 in credit card debt.

Even though she had not used the cards to buy anything more, her debt had nearly doubled to $49,574 by the time the Sunnyvale, Calif., resident filed for bankruptcy last June. That is because Hosseini's payments sometimes were tardy, triggering late fees ranging from $25 to $50 and doubling interest rates to nearly 30 percent. When the additional costs pushed her balance over her credit limit, the credit card companies added more penalties.

"I was really trying hard to make minimum payments," said Hosseini, whose financial problems began in the late 1990s when her husband left her and their three children. "All of my salary was going to the credit card companies, but there was no change in the balances because of that interest and those penalties."

Punitive charges -- penalty fees and sharply higher interest rates after a payment is late -- compound the problems of many financially strapped consumers, sometimes making it impossible for them to dig their way out of debt and pushing them into bankruptcy.

The Senate is to vote as soon as this week on a bill that would make it harder for individuals to wipe out debt through bankruptcy. The Senate last week voted down several amendments intended to curb excessive fees and other practices that critics of the industry say are abusive. House leaders say they will act soon after that, and President Bush has said he supports the bill.

Bankruptcy experts say that too often, by the time an individual has filed for bankruptcy or is hauled into court by creditors, he or she has repaid an amount equal to their original credit card debt plus double-digit interest, but still owes hundreds or thousands of dollars because of penalties.

"How is it that the person who wants to do right ends up so worse off?" Cleveland Municipal Judge Robert J. Triozzi said last fall when he ruled against Discover in the company's breach-of-contract suit against another struggling credit cardholder, Ruth M. Owens.

Owens tried for six years to pay off a $1,900 balance on her Discover card, sending the credit company a total of $3,492 in monthly payments from 1997 to 2003. Yet her balance grew to $5,564.28, even though, like Hosseini, she never used the card to buy anything more. Of that total, over-limit penalty fees alone were $1,158.

Triozzi denied Discover's claim, calling its attempt to collect more money from Owens "unconscionable."

The bankruptcy measure now being debated in Congress has been sought for nearly eight years by the credit card industry. Twice in that time, versions of it have passed both the House and Senate. Once, President Bill Clinton refused to sign it, saying it was unfair, and once the House reversed its vote after Democrats attached an amendment that would prevent individuals such as anti-abortion protesters from using bankruptcy as a shield against court-imposed fines.

Credit card companies and most congressional Republicans say current law needs to be changed to prevent abuse and make more people repay at least part of their debt. Consumer-advocacy groups and many Democrats say people who seek bankruptcy protection do so mostly because they have fallen on hard times through illness, divorce or job loss. They also argue that current law has strong provisions that judges can use to weed out those who abuse the system.

Opponents also argue that the legislation is unfair because it ignores loopholes that would allow rich debtors to shield millions of dollars during bankruptcy through expensive homes and complex trusts, while ignoring the need for more disclosure to cardholders about rates and fees and curbs on what they say is irresponsible behavior by the credit card industry. The Republican majority, along with a few Democrats, has voted down dozens of proposed amendments to the bill, including one that would make it easier for the elderly to protect their homes in bankruptcy and another that would require credit card companies to tell customers how much extra interest they would pay over time by making only minimum payments.

No one knows how many consumers get caught in the spiral of "negative amortization," which is what regulators call it when a consumer makes payments but balances continue to grow because of penalty costs. The problem is widespread enough to worry federal bank regulators, who say nearly all major credit card issuers engage in the practice.

Two years ago regulators adopted a policy that will require credit card companies to set monthly minimum payments high enough to cover penalties and interest and lower some of the customer's original debt, known as principal, so that if a consumer makes no new charges and makes monthly minimum payments, his or her balance will begin to decline.

Banks agreed to the new rules after, in the words of one top federal regulator, "some arm-twisting." But bank executives persuaded regulators to allow the higher minimum payments to be phased in over several years, through 2006, arguing that many customers are so much in debt that even slight increases too soon could push many into financial disaster.

Credit card companies declined to comment on specific cases or customers for this article, but banking industry officials, speaking generally, said there is a good reason for the fees they charge.

"It's to encourage people to pay their bills the way they said they would in their contract, to encourage good financial management," said Nessa Feddis, senior federal counsel for the American Bankers Association. "There has to be some onus on the cardholder, some responsibility to manage their finances."

High fees "may be extreme cases, but they are not the trend, not the norm," Feddis said.

"Banks are pretty flexible," she said. "If you are a good customer and have an occasional mishap, they'll waive the fees, because there's so much competition and it's too easy to go someplace else." Banks are also willing to work out settlements with people in financial difficulty, she said, because "there are still a lot of options even for people who've been in trouble."

Many bankruptcy lawyers disagree. James S.K. "Ike" Shulman, Hosseini's lawyer, said credit card companies hounded her and did not live up to several promises to work with her to cut mounting fees.

Regulators say it is appropriate for lenders to charge higher-risk debtors a higher interest rate, but that negative amortization and other practices go too far, posing risks to the banking system by threatening borrowers' ability to repay their debts and by being unfair to individuals.

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge David H. Adams of Norfolk, who is also the president of the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges, said many debtors who get in over their heads "are spending money, buying things they shouldn't be buying." Even so, he said, "once you add all these fees on, the amount of principal being paid is negligible. The fees and interest and other charges are so high, they may never be able to pay it off."

Judges say there is little they can do by the time cases get to bankruptcy court. Under the law, "the credit card company is legally entitled to collect every dollar without a distinction" whether the balance is from fees, interest or principal, said retired U.S. bankruptcy judge Ronald Barliant, who presided in Chicago. The only question for the courts is whether the debt is accurate, judges and lawyers say.

John Rao, staff attorney of the National Consumer Law Center, one of many consumer groups fighting the bankruptcy bill, says the plight consumers face was illustrated last year in a bankruptcy case filed in Northern Virginia.

Manassas resident Josephine McCarthy's Providian Visa bill increased to $5,357 from $4,888 in two years, even though McCarthy has used the card for only $218.16 in purchases and has made monthly payments totaling $3,058. Those payments, noted U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Stephen S. Mitchell in Alexandria, all went to "pay finance charges (at a whopping 29.99%), late charges, over-limit fees, bad check fees and phone payment fees." Mitchell allowed the claim "because the debtor admitted owing it." McCarthy, through her lawyer, declined to be interviewed.

Alan Elias, a Providian Financial Corp. spokesman, said: "When consumers sign up for a credit card, they should understand that it's a loan, no different than their mortgage payment or their car payment, and it needs to be repaid. And just like a mortgage payment and a car payment, if you are late you are assessed a fee." The 29.99 percent interest rate, he said, is the default rate charged to consumers "who don't met their obligation to pay their bills on time" and is clearly disclosed on account applications.

Feddis, of the banker's association, said the nature of debt means that interest will often end up being more than the original principal. "Anytime you have a loan that's going to extend for any period of time, the interest is going to accumulate. Look at a 30-year-mortgage. The interest is much, much more than the principal."

Samuel J. Gerdano, executive director of the American Bankruptcy Institute, a nonpartisan research group, said that focusing on late fees is "refusing to look at the elephant in the room, and that's the massive levels of consumer debt which is not being paid. People are living right up to the edge," failing to save so when they lose a second job or overtime, face medical expense or their family breaks up, they have no money to cope.

"Late fees aren't the cause of debt," he said.

Credit card use continues to grow, with an average of 6.3 bank credit cards and 6.3 store credit cards for every household, according to Cardweb.com Inc., which monitors the industry. Fifteen years ago, the averages were 3.4 bank credit cards and 4.1 retail credit cards per household.

Despite, or perhaps because of, the large increase in cards, there is a "fee feeding frenzy," among credit card issuers, said Robert McKinley, Cardweb's president and chief executive. "The whole mentality has really changed over the last several years," with the industry imposing fees and increasing interest rates if a single payment is late.

Penalty interest rates usually are about 30 percent, with some as high as 40 percent, while late fees now often are $39 a month, and over-limit fees, about $35, McKinley said. "If you drag that out for a year, it could be very damaging," he said. "Late and over-limit fees alone can easily rack up $900 in fees, and a 30 percent interest rate on a $3,000 balance can add another $1,000, so you could go from $2,000 to $5,000 in just one year if you fail to make payments."

According to R.K. Hammer Investment Bankers, a California credit card consulting firm, banks collected $14.8 billion in penalty fees last year, or 10.9 percent of revenue, up from $10.7 billion, or 9 percent of revenue, in 2002, the first year the firm began to track penalty fees.

The way the fees are now imposed, "people would be better off if they stopped paying" once they get in over their heads, said T. Bentley Leonard, a North Carolina bankruptcy attorney . Once you stop paying, creditors write off the debt and sell it to a debt collector. "They may harass you, but your balance doesn't keep rising. That's the irony."

washingtonpost.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 1:26:10 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Buffett condemns 'force-feeding' of US wealth to the rest of the world
Message 21107533



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 1:43:47 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Real estate investors cast watchful eye on Las Vegas' high stakes housing game

in less time than it takes to build a single house, the market changed.

Egged on by the stratospheric prices their neighbors were asking -- and getting -- homeowners in Las Vegas flooded the market with "for sale" signs. The number of existing houses posted for sale on the Multiple Listing Service ballooned from about 1,400 in February to more than 16,000 by October.

Among them were never-lived-in homes offered by investors who had bought them only months before from national homebuilders -- who were selling their own brand-new houses literally across the street.

Doncov, a 57-year-old engineer who was a victim of the technology flame- out, was one of thousands of investors who hoped to turn a quick profit by buying and selling Las Vegas property within a few months. Early last year he bought two new houses from Pulte Homes for $515,000 each.

By the end of the summer, he said, the houses were worth well over $600, 000, based on Pulte's prices for the same models. Then Pulte cut the price by about $180,000.

Doncov sold the two properties in December and January for $480,000 and $490,000; after closing costs and sales fees, he estimates he lost $100,000.

....
"Because the market has cracked in Las Vegas doesn't mean it's imminent in other areas," Leamer said.

sfgate.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 1:50:04 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
New leading index for U.S. home sales launched-NAR
pending sales

reuters.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 2:00:16 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Ron Paul
The following is from the Congressional Website, is part of the Congressional Record and is public domain.

house.gov

Tax Reform is a Shell Game

March 7, 2005

Tax reform is back in the news, brought to the political forefront by a recent meeting of the president's advisory panel on tax reform. Once again, politicians and former politicians are lamenting the complexity of our tax laws, as though their own spending measures have nothing to do with it. But we've heard this song before. In fact, we've been promised a simpler, fairer, and better income tax system many times, most recently in 1997 and 1986 when Congress made relatively significant changes to the tax code. Yet the federal tax system remains an embarrassment, both in terms of the tax burden itself and the outrageous compliance costs engendered by its complexity.

One tax reform idea tacitly endorsed by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan calls for a national retail consumption tax to replace the existing income tax. Absent the outright repeal of the 16th Amendment, however, we cannot be sure that an income tax would not reappear at some point. One can easily imagine popular support for retaining the income tax on the “very rich,” which of course is how the 16th amendment originally was sold to a gullible public in the 1910s.

The president has thrown cold water on the consumption tax proposal, however, by announcing he opposes any reform that eliminates mortgage and charitable deductions. This leaves us with variations on the flat tax concept, which was savaged by the political left when advocated by the likes of House Majority Leader Dick Armey and Steve Forbes in the 1990s.

Lew Rockwell of the Ludwig von Mises Institute offers a very simple test for any tax reform proposal: Does it reduce or eliminate an existing tax? If not, then it amounts to nothing more than a political shell game that pits taxpayers against each other in a lobbying scramble to make sure the other guy pays. True tax reform is as simple as cutting or eliminating taxes. No studies, panels, committees, or hearings are needed. When reform proposals seem complicated, they almost certainly don't cut taxes.

The reform debate is strictly about politics and not serious economics. Both sides use demagoguery but don't propose truly significant tax reductions. Both sides use the outrageous expression “cost to government” when talking about the impact of tax legislation on revenues. This implies that government owns everything, and that any tax rate less than 100% costs government some of its rightful bounty.

Government spending is the problem! When the federal government takes $2.5 trillion dollars out of the legitimate private economy in a single year, whether through taxes or borrowing, spending clearly is out of control. Deficit spending creates a de facto tax hike, because deficits can be repaid only by future tax increases. By this measure Congress and the president have raised taxes dramatically over the past few years, despite the tax-cutting rhetoric. The real issue is total spending by government, not tax reform.

Who wants a 40% flat tax? Who wants a national sales tax if it adds 35% to the retail price of everything we buy? In other words, why change the tax structure if spending stays the same? Once we accept that Congress needs $2.5 trillion from us-- and more each year-- the only question left is from whom it will be collected. Until the federal government is held to its proper constitutionally limited functions, tax reform will remain a mirage.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 9:04:50 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
UK Feb retail sales slip back after fleeting bounce - BRC
Tuesday, March 8, 2005 12:16:30 AM
afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - UK retail sales in February slid lower as the effects of the winter sales period which had propped up January faded out and as shoppers were kept away by unseasonably cold weather. In its monthly retail sales monitor, the British Retail Consortium said like-for-like sales, which does not include expansion in floor space, fell 0.3 pct in Feb from a year ago, compared with a rise of 0.5 pct in January

The latest fall takes retail sales back to levels seen in the tough pre-Christmas period. The drop is also likely to lead to renewed fears that consumer spending has started on a downward spiral after the Bank of England put up borrowing costs 5 times since November 2003

Curiously, the weekend papers had left markets bracing for a much steeper fall in Feb. While the gilt market may suffer a fall from the actual number, it cannot be denied that consumer spending is starting to flag. Earlier in the year, the slump to near 25 year lows in official retail sales data for December had sent shock waves through the market. Bank of England governor Mervyn King who had at the time called on markets not to read too much into one month's data, may be forced to reconsider

The Bank of England's rate setting panel, the Monetary Policy Committee, meets this week to decide on interest rates but a no change verdict is expected on Thursday

"Consumers' concern about interest rates, the housing market and taxes continue to impact sales, particularly big-ticket furniture and electricals. Clothing and footwear also suffered, BRC said. Total sales, which includes expansion in floor space, rose 2.9 pct in Feb, well down on the 3.5 pct increase in Jan. The latest reading is just a shade stronger than the 2.5 pct gain in December. BRC Director General, Kevin Hawkins said the figures are a further confirmation that trading on the high street remains tough for many

"Whilst the January sales brought a temporary improvement for some retailers, trade took a downward turn when the deep discounting ended and footfall levels remained generally low throughout February - not helped by the bad weather across the UK," he added

He noted that Valentine's Day gave some stores a boost, but failed to make up for the rest of the month

Hawkins called for a reduction in interest rates to help build consumer confidence

forexstreet.com



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 9:10:44 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Japan Feb bank lending down 3.0 pct year-on-year, 86th straight decline
Tuesday, March 8, 2005 12:26:05 AM
afxpress.com

TOKYO (AFX) - Lending by Japanese banks fell 3.0 pct in February from a year earlier, the 86th consecutive month of decline, the Bank of Japan said, reflecting weak corporate demand for bank financing

Bank lending dropped 3.0 pct in January, 3.1 pct in December and 3.3 pct in November from year-earlier levels

Analysts say large companies remain reluctant to borrow as they continue to focus on reducing debt, while often turning to capital markets -- selling shares or bonds -- if they do need to raise money

But the decline in lending was substantially offset by adjustments for special items such as loan securitization, foreign exchange rates and write-offs of bad debt. After adjusting for such factors, lending fell by just 0.9 pct, compared to declines of 1.0 pct in January and 1.1-1.3 pct over the last four months of 2004

On an unadjusted basis, lending by banks with branches nationwide -- so-called "city banks" -- fell by 5.1 pct year-on-year, matching the decline over the two previous months

Lending by large regional banks rose 1.2 pct in February, after rising a revised 1.0 pct in January and by 0.8 pct in December. Lending by second-tier regional banks dropped 4.9 pct year-on-year, following declines of 5.0 pct in January and 4.9-5.0 pct over the final three months of 2004

Lending by credit unions fell by 0.7 pct in February, following declines of 0.6-0.7 pct over the five previous months



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 9:14:09 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Australia´s NAB business confidence index falls sharply in Jan
Tuesday, March 8, 2005 1:13:22 AM
forexstreet.com

Australia's NAB business confidence index falls sharply in Jan SYDNEY (AFX) - National Australia Bank said its business confidence index, which measures expectations going forward, fell to 4.5 points in February from 21 points in January

But, it said, in seasonally adjusted terms the fall was less pronounced, easing 5 points to 10 points

NAB said its business conditions index, which measures current conditions, rose 6 points to an overall 10 index points in February, only partly recovering the very large seasonal fall of 13 points in January

It said the business conditions index in seasonally adjusted terms, was broadly unchanged at 11.8 index points in February compared with 11.3 points in January

NAB group chief economist Alan Oster said the survey points clearly to a slowing in business conditions that is very much more than "just seasonal" in nature

Oster said it appears that that slowing has been underway since around October/November

He said the direction of both domestic demand and business conditions is clearly down, adding that NAB expects this trend to continue during 2005

Oster said the NAB has revised downwards its overall gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2005 to 2.5 pct from 2.75 pct previously

He said if the Australian dollar remains strong, rather than progressively weaken during 2005, the risks to that growth forecast are on the downside, while inflation risks will ease

Given the outlook, which implies a further easing in capacity constraints and a moderate rise in the unemployment rate, Oster said NAB expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave interest rates on hold while it awaits further data on the extent of the slowdown

Last week, the RBA raised its official cash rate 25 basis points to 5.50 pct, making it the first tightening move in 15 months

Nevertheless, Oster said, the RBA foresees stronger growth and is clearly still concerned about the inflation outlook. He said data outcomes will be critical with any signs of further acceleration in wages and/or house prices and credit growth likely to be critical

"If the RBA was to tighten a further 25 points to 5.75 pct in the next month or two - as is probably their current intention - it would not be a surprise," Oster said

But, he said, given activity is already weakening, as shown by the NAB survey, it is likely any further upward adjustment will reversed by the end of 2005



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 9:17:15 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
China´s central bank drains 55 bln yuan cash in open market operations
Tuesday, March 8, 2005 6:56:47 AM
forexstreet.com

China's central bank drains 55 bln yuan cash in open market operations BEIJING (AFX) - The People's Bank of China, the central bank, drained a total of 55 bln yuan in today's open market operations, with bank bills and repurchase agreements

The central bank issued 20 bln yuan in six-month bank bills with a yield of 2.3890 pct and another 30 bln yuan in one-year bank bills with a yield of 2.8172 pct

It also drained five bln yuan from the banking system by conducting treasury bonds repurchase agreement transactions



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 9:19:30 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
IMF warns of imbalance in global growth - report
Tuesday, March 8, 2005 7:21:35 AM
afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - The global economic upswing is becoming "increasingly unbalanced", with the US still growing surprisingly fast but most other industrial nations falling short of expectations, according to an International Monetary Fund report

The Financial Times said a draft of the report obtained by its German sister paper Financial Times Deutschland, said divergences in economic performance, and dependence on the US and China to power economic growth, may widen global imbalances and "raise the risk of a more significant slowdown later on." While the IMF revised upwards its outlook for US growth upwards this year, it slashed the growth outlook for Japan and the euro zone

It raised its outlook for US growth this year and next to 3.7 pct, but cautioned that "with household savings close to zero a retrenchment in private consumption remains a risk, particularly if house price increases were to slow." It said it expects further depreciation of the dollar and pointed to delays in implementing measures to tackle fiscal consolidation in the US, structural reform in Europe and currency flexibility in Asia

Japanese growth has stalled since early 2004, the IMF said, with exports and investment faltering. The fund cut its 2005 growth outlook to 0.8 pct this year, down from the 2.3 pct growth it forecast last September

The report notes that eurozone growth slowed markedly in the second half of 2004

"While some tentative signs of renewed growth are emerging, the upturn in 2005 is expected to be significantly weaker than earlier thought," it said

Forecast eurozone growth has been cut to 1.6 per cent this year from the IMF's earlier forecast of 2.2 pct

"In both the euro area and Japan, further sharp currency appreciation is an important risk," it said

Overall, the IMF expected global GDP growth to moderate to 4.3 pct in 2005, 0.8 percentage points slower than in 2004

Although the balance of risks to global growth has improved in recent months, it remains weighed down by the high oil price, it said



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 9:25:02 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
ECOFIN EU´s Almunia says ´not very satisfied´ with stability pact talks UPDATE
Tuesday, March 8, 2005 8:49:57 AM
forexstreet.com

EU's Almunia says 'not very satisfied' with stability pact talks UPDATE (Updates with Juncker, Eichel comments)
BRUSSELS (AFX) - EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner Joaquin Almunia said he is "not very satisfied" at the outcome of late-night talks on reforming the stability and growth pact

Euro group finance ministers decided in the early hours of this morning to hold fresh negotiations on March 20 after failing to reach agreement on overhauling the EU's fiscal rulebook

"There are a lot of issues that are open," Almunia said on his way into a meeting of all 25 EU finance ministers

"I am not very satisfied," he said

The talks broke down over German opposition to the proposed reforms, which nonetheless took into account much of the euro zone heavyweight's wishlist

German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is expected to continue negotiations in a meeting this evening with Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who chairs the euro group and whose country holds the rotating EU presidency

At the end of the overnight meeting, Juncker said ministers had made progress

"We are heading towards an agreement," he said, adding that the talks remained "difficult"

German finance minister Hans Eichel said he was "optimistic" about the chances of an agreement on March 20 ahead of the gathering of EU leaders on March 22 and 23

The euro group last night debated a proposal from the Luxembourg presidency which made such huge concessions to high-deficit Germany and France that it represented a dilution of the stability pact

But one source said: "Germany is still not happy, and it won't be until there are no more rules."



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (25090)3/8/2005 9:29:39 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Japan ready to intervene in forex mart to counter excessive movements-Watanabe
Tuesday, March 8, 2005 9:26:19 AM
forexstreet.com

TOKYO (AFX) - Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, reiterated that Tokyo remains ready to intervene in the currency market to counter excessive yen movements

Watanabe was speading at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan, almost one year to the day since Tokyo last intervened in the international currency market

He said Washington's plan to cut its budget deficit is "a very firm commitment", and expressed the hope that investor concerns over the huge US twin deficits would fade. But Watanabe indicated Tokyo would not lower its guard against a plunge in the dollar's value against the yen

"Now, even though I have a strong concern (that) the Japanese yen is overvalued, I have no intention to make any verbal intervention," Watanabe said

"But if there is an abrupt movement or an overshoot, we are going to freely step into the market." The dollar has been under pressure from lingering concerns over the huge US current account and fiscal deficits, and has been vulnerable in the past when terror attacks on US targets were feared

Japan has not intervened in the currency market for about 12 months, after massive dollar-buying intervention in 2003 and early 2004 to prevent the yen from rising sharply against the greenback and derailing Japan's export-driven recovery

On creating a single regional currency, Watanabe said Asia would probably start with a basket of five key currencies -- the euro, yen, US dollar, Korean won and Thai baht

The Singapore dollar could also be included if the Singapore government began to allow its use outside the island state

But the Chinese yuan could not be considered a component because China, despite its growing economic influence, does not yet have a workable money market, Watanabe said

He said units like the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit would be excluded in a regional currency basket until strict control of fund flows into and out of these countries was relaxed

To avoid a repeat of the regional liquidity crisis of 1997-98, Asian countries are trying to put in place bilateral currency swaps and develop bond markets denominated in regional currencies

"Five years ago, most Asian people said it would take 70 to 80 years (to create a single regional currency)," Watanabe said. "But now...20 years is one of the targets."