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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (28058)	3/8/2005 7:49:47 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Asian downturn du jour: [Taiwan's ] Exports slide 11% amid electronics slump 2005-03-08 / Bloomberg / Taiwan's exports fell in February as electronics demand slumped and changes in the timing of the Lunar New Year meant there were fewer working days. Shipments dropped 11 percent from a year earlier to US$11.8 billion after climbing 30 percent in January, the Ministry of Finance said today in a statement in Taipei. The decline, the first since March 2002, was more severe than the median 4 percent slide forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of six economists. Taiwan's overseas sales have dipped on sluggish spending in the world's biggest economies, hurting companies such as AU Optronics Corp., the world's third-largest maker of flat-panel displays. The government on February 24 cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 4.2 percent from 4.6 percent, citing flagging exports. The island's imports fell 17 percent to US$10.9 billion in February, resulting in a trade surplus of US$899 million for the month. Imports were expected to show a 3 percent drop last month, according to the survey. Taiwan had 15 working days in February, compared with 20 a year earlier, as the Lunar New Year holiday began on February 7 compared with January 21 in 2004. Offices and factories traditionally close during the island's biggest holiday. To allow for the differences in the timing of the holiday, economists tend to look at combined figures for the first two months. Exports rose 8.3 percent to US$27.1 billion in the past two months and imports increased 11 percent to US$26.4 billion, today's statement said. That left a US$700 million trade surplus, the ministry said. Exports are expected to rise 5.9 percent in March and imports will probably increase 11 percent, Hsu Kuo-chung, statistics chief at the finance ministry, said today at a news briefing in Taipei. Sluggish global demand, a weakening U.S. dollar and a cooling Chinese economy will contribute to a slowdown in Taiwan's export growth this year, the ministry said on February 14. The New Taiwan dollar gained 2.8 percent in the first two months of this year and today reached NT$30.78 per U.S. dollar, its highest in more than four years. "Waning global demand for electronics products and a rising local currency are weighing on Taiwan's exports," Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said in a research report on March 4. The fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm said in the report that the outlook for Taiwan's export growth is "weakening." AU Optronics posted its first loss in two years in the fourth quarter as prices of flat-screen displays, used as computer screens and televisions, tumbled. The Hsinchu, Taiwan- based company had an unaudited loss of NT$2.23 billion ($72 million), compared with net income of NT$7.6 billion a year earlier. Makers of flat-panel displays used in televisions and computers may face losses until mid-2006 on excess production, the Commercial Times reported on March 3, citing Ross Young, president of U.S.-based researcher DisplaySearch. The island's shipments of information technology and communications products fell 25 percent to US$1.6 billion in the past two months, today's report showed. Shipments of computer chips and other electronic parts, which make up the biggest share of Taiwan's overseas sales, gained 5.2 percent to US$6.2 billion. Sales to the U.S., the biggest buyer of Taiwanese goods after China, increased 9.8 percent to US$4.1 billion. Shipments to Europe rose 0.8 percent to US$3.6 billion and those to Japan increased 9.9 percent to US$2.2 billion. Exports to China and Hong Kong rose 6.2 percent to US$9.8 billion. Many goods headed for China go through Hong Kong because of restrictions on trade and transportation between China and Taiwan. etaiwannews.com

To: orkrious who wrote (28058)	3/8/2005 8:27:36 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

I think copper consumption is slowing. In fact I wonder if Asian economic activity might be in full retreat as we speak? On 1-28 combined Shanghai, Comex, and LME stocks were at an extremely low 106,569 MT, and this AM it's 134,470. Hardly a glut, but a sign the market is changing. Meanwhile, we now have copper trading at new highs today, on the latest USD weakness. Copper(CMX) May 151.60 +1.95 3/8/2005 5:15 This will pressure China even more and is the manifestation of my Train Wreck theory (). Speculator positions in copper are already very high, so we are entering into rarified air. Could it go high risk parabolic as the technical traders add? Absolutely, especially with all the hot EZ money around, from the Alan Greenspan casino Pig Man/Bully economy. CNBC and Kudlow/Kramer/Goebbels are running exposure to the key resource analysts non-stop now, bad sign, tells you the Pig Men are working this to their ends (sell to latecomers). They've finally even had maverick unconventional energy analyst Matt Simmons two days running. So this is now not exactly meeting my smell test. It fact it has the heavy smell of the Train Wreck underway. One has to weigh strong parabolic action (and economy destroying) with risk more and more. My inclination now is try and develop some kind of good Asia and China short. Any ideas? CHN can't be shorted. Happy times are here for resource stocks and commodities, but this will be difficult to time and trade. On NTO, we also have chart patterns and events at work. This one has clearly been discovered by the IBD momo types, as the chart is parabolic. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G WHT reported yesterday, so we already have Alumbrera results (NTO's would be one-third that of WHT) for the 4th qt, quite good. So the company report Wed. will be largely about Aqua Fria if we are going to get anything else. Alumbrera milled record tonnes in 2004, primarily as a result of on-going productivity improvements and the successful commissioning of the flotation plant expansion early in the year. This also contributed to increased recoveries, particularly of gold. Average grades mined were down approximately 16% compared with 2003, more in line with long-term average grades. Average realized gold and copper prices were 14% and 58% higher, respectively, compared to 2003. High copper prices resulted in total cash costs of minus $371 per ounce of gold, compared with minus $191 per ounce in 2003. Alumbrera had an excellent fourth quarter, with high average grades and excellent recoveries. As a result, production of both gold and copper was significantly above average. However, as a result of the timing of sales shipments, approximately 25% of the quarter's production was not recognised in sales until 2005. Had these shipments been recognised in 2004, as opposed to 2005, Wheat0n's 2004 sales and net earnings would have been increased by approximately $26 million and $11 million, respectively. The Company received $126.5 million in cash distributions from Alumbrera during 2004, bringing total distributions since Wheaton acquired the mine in March 2003 to $161.5 million. In May 2004, Alumbrera repaid $58 million (Wheaton's share) of project debt and is now debt-free. In June 2004, Alumbrera announced a 20% increase in the ore reserves which has added 2.5 years to the present mine life and ensured production until mid-2015. This substantial increase in reserves has added 1.2 million ounces of gold and 770 million pounds of contained copper, of which Wheaton's share is 37.5%. Further intensive in-pit resource definition work will continue with the objective of adding additional ore reserves in the coming year. Alumbrera's effective tax rate for 2004 was 26%, compared to the statutory tax rate of 30%, due to a recovery of future taxes in the fourth quarter of approximately $6 million relating to foreign exchange deductions and other permanent differences. During 2004, Alumbrera commenced accruing cash taxes payable, which will be due in May, 2005. Wheaton's share at December 31, 2004 amounted to $45.4 million. () My theory that the global and especially Asia's profitless output and America's jobless consumer/finance economy will be wrecked by high commodity and input prices. financialsense.com