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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (25111)	3/8/2005 9:35:29 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

>>.probably take a year or two to discover the risks in covered call writing the way they do it.<<, I wonder if they will just let their stocks be called away from them in the event of a rise above the call strikes. I guess if they had the cash they could buy and deliver the stock if they wanted to maintain the position. Seems kind of funny to be bullish on a sector and simultaneously short it by selling calls. I guess it all depends on how accurately you guess the rate of change. Incidentally, a fund that I own has been going great guns: finance.yahoo.com It's pretty much pure chance that I own it. Twenty years ago when I was a silver fool I bought something called Prospector Fund, and soon afterwards the manager absconded with about half the assets or more. The parent company "made us whole" over a couple of years, and after various evolutions my investment ended up in PSPFX, which seems to have concocted a brilliant blend of world-wide resource stocks. It's now worth about ten times what I put into it, not spectacular for 20 years, and it's an IRA, so it compounded.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (25111)	3/8/2005 9:40:15 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

CORN: Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Monday, March 7th and the markets are closed.? Our weekly export inspection report showed 33.5 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export up from 31.6 the week prior, over our four week average of 26 but well under a year ago of 54 m.b. year todate inspection are 881 m.b. versus 966 a year ago.? It is a neutral demand indicator at best.? Corn followed our prescription that lower prices were coming this week as our bean rally was ending.? May corn opened half cent higher than pushed to down 3 cents at mid- session.? I recommended on my Friday report to sell May on a higher open and buy the April puts.? We have a monthly crop report Thursday at 7:30 a.m. central time which looks to come in slightly bearish on a carry over stocks increase.? May has support at 2.12 then 2.10.? 2.10 might hold into Thursday?s report but I do expect 2.10 to be broken with 2.05 as a settling point after it. WHEAT: Our weekly export inspection report showed 11.2 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export down from 22.3 the week prior, under our four week average of 18 and a year ago of 21 m.b. year to date inspection are 803 versus 858 m.b.? It?s a negative near term demand signal.? Nothing new here.? We looked to enter the week with an end to our bean rally influencing wheat leaving wheat?s bearish demand and good winter wheat outlook to weigh on prices.? We opened lower pushing to 6 down in late trading on May.? Hopefully you bought the April 3.25 puts I recommended.? May looks poised to push to 3.20 with worst case scenario 3.10 when dormancy breaks and weather is ideal.? But, that?s to be seen. BEAN: Monday started with our weekly export inspection report showing 25.7 m.b. were inspected for near term export down from 27.3 the week prior, under our four week average of 28 but well over a year ago of 14 m.b.? The main thing is were lower for the second week as our big price rally is finally backing away importers.? Bingo, looks like we may have called beans weather rally high to the day.? On Friday I gave wxrisk.com weather update calling for dry weather in Brazil all week.? I said when large trading funds come in, they will fade the weather and use strength to sell their big, long position as the end of the growing season in Brazil would be in site by week?s end.? Sunday night saw new 5 month highs of 6.38 up 8 to 9 cents with the day session opening a half higher then a continued selling of long positions all day until 13 cent losses surfaced at the end.? Here are funds psychology to understand.? We knew funds would fade a higher open as they saw Brazil?s growing season coming to an end by the end of the week or as I have put on this web site March 10 to 15.? they never squeeze the turnip for its last drop of blood.? Go back to the February 9th U.S.D.A. crop report.? It was a bearish report with opening calls of 3 to 5 cents lower.? The market opened 3 higher and rallied into month?s end.? Funds said sure it is bearish but it is also the last bearish supply side report on last year?s record crop.? They came in today and said this is the last bullish weather report for Brazil?s crop.? So, the February 9th bearish report became bullish as it was the last bearish report and today?s was bearish report and today?s was bearish as it was the last bullish report.? You can see the psychology and understanding fund thinking we were able to give your today?s trading psychology in advance.? Now, that we have said that Tuesday?s a new day.? Looking into Thursday?s crop report.? Tuesday looks to see May beans possibly fill the gap on the charts between 6.06 and 6.11.? Wednesday we should have choppy consolidating trade ahead of Thursday?s U.S.D.A. report.? Thursday?s report should lower Brazil?s crop size.? Look to see the report adjust for that by lowering our carry over stocks.? This will give us a higher open Thursday which should be sold as funds continue profit taking.