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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: pezz who wrote (60801)3/9/2005 6:46:01 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Last Night's Report:

Lovely night of looting. My NAV went up.

Doubled up on shorts against:

Centex finance.yahoo.com at 61ish
Lennar finance.yahoo.com at 58ish
Pulte finance.yahoo.com at 76.5ish

I feel the same as I do when nearing the end game in on-line Unreal Tournament, as my team surge forth in onslught mode and individual members rampage within the defenders' base camp. Kill or be killed, the final struggle time.

I need tech names to short, any ideas?

I like housing shorts, because the potential gains are more plentiful, since at this stage housing is a tax revenue source to the strained local governments, risk to the financial institutions, consumption to the primary owner-resident, convenience to the renter, and questionable allocation of capital for the investor, and many are fatally bloated on toxic debt, even as the general global environment will aid in the onslaught yet to be.

Housing shorts could turn out to be a generous seam of cheap cash.

On another front, the (speed of light) Japan real estate club deal I committed to just called for 50% of committed amounts. Looks like they will be closing with local partners on a commercial/retail building in Tokyo at 71% leverage. This move will allow the club members to tap into the rich vein of Japanese wealth, helping the Japanese to dissipate same faster, to where it is needed most, our dinning tables.

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (60801)3/11/2005 12:08:02 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, <<insanity>> Toninight's Gambit:

I increased my less than sane but otherwise perfectly rational wager against the following via the mechanism of purchasing LEAP Puts:

Centex finance.yahoo.com 2007 Jan Put strike 55 at USD 7.6/shr

Lennar finance.yahoo.com 2007 Jan Put strike 50 at USD 6.0/shr

Pulte finance.yahoo.com 2007 Jan Put strike 60 at USD 7.0/shr

In for a penny in for a pound, what the heck.

It is a personal thing, for I want to either be vindicated, or learn the harsh lessons once again.

I thought about shorting Google/Martha Stewart or buying their Put options, but then figured:

- look Jay, if the market is going to stay insane, it can do so with Google far easier than it could with housing, because housing requires mortgage, and mortgage requires monthly payments; and

- if the market is going to be more thoughtful and reflective, perhaps it would do so first with Google, but then surely housing will then tag along for electro-shock therapy morning wake-up call.

I just dunno, so let's watch.

Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (60801)3/14/2005 10:23:22 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Time to Play:

I bought a batch of shares normally more in your line of sight (or should), the name is CARDIOVASCULAR BIOTHERAPY finance.yahoo.com at USD 12.6-13.6/shr ... I know nothing about it, except many of its pre-IPO investors are doctors, and so figured "what the h" to the extent that I figured at all.

Update: the news from Macau continues to be bullish, although much work remains to be done. Just as mainland Chinese tourists seem bent on making me better off in Mongkok, whether by visiting its restaurants or brothels, I figure regional tourists and Vegas operations will make me not worse off, whether by visiting Macau casinos or houses of not-very-good-reputation.

Hedonism has generally been profitable:

online.wsj.com
Deals Would Add
Big Hotel Brands
To Macau Strip

Sands Aims to Buttress
Its Casino With Properties
Run by Marriott, Others
By PETER SANDERS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
March 14, 2005; Page A10

Nearly two years after announcing plans to develop a Las Vegas-style strip in Asia's gambling hotbed of Macau, Las Vegas Sands Corp. is in advanced discussions to bring a number of leading hotel brands to the area, many of them to be accompanied by a Sands-operated casino.

People familiar with the discussions said the companies include Marriott International Inc., Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc., Four Seasons Hotels Inc. and Intercontinental Hotels Group. It is part of a bid by Las Vegas Sands to buttress its own planned $1.8 billion casino, which is under construction, with other hotel and casino properties, to be built on an undeveloped site adjacent to the territory's international airport.

The hotels would manage the properties -- and in some cases have an equity stake -- while Las Vegas Sands would operate the casinos, meeting spaces and convention centers under concessionaire agreements and the gambling license issued by the Macau government in 2002.

Company officials said investors, hotel executives and local government officials plan to deliver a public update soon about developments on the first phase of a three-phase, $10 billion project to be built on land reclaimed from the Pearl River Delta.

The project, dubbed the Cotai strip, began in earnest last June when construction started on Las Vegas Sands's flagship resort, the Venetian Macao. The $1.8 billion Venetian -- with an initial 1,500 all-suite room layout; one million square feet of meeting space; a 15,000-seat arena; and a large casino -- is on track for a spring 2007 opening, according to company officials.

Separately, the company will host U.S. analysts this week on a tour of the Cotai strip development and the already opened and recently expanded Sands Casino in central Macau.

William Weidner, president and chief operating officer of Las Vegas Sands, said signed deals are "a matter of a few weeks" away.

Marriott International's chief financial officer, Arne Sorenson, acknowledged that Marriott has had discussions with Las Vegas Sands about developing properties in Macau, but he wouldn't comment on the status of any potential deals. A person familiar with the matter said Marriott likely would operate one of its more upscale brands -- possibly a JW Marriott or Renaissance.

A Starwood spokeswoman said the company is in "continuing negotiations" with a focus on developing a Sheraton or W brand hotel on the Cotai strip. Four Seasons and Intercontinental declined to comment about specific developments in Asia, though both companies said the market remains a top target.

For Las Vegas Sands, based in Las Vegas, any deal would strengthen its attempt to create a Macau version of the famed Vegas strip in a region with potentially more than half a billion traveling gamblers, according to various estimates. The Cotai strip, on land between the two southern Macau islands of Coloane and Taipa, is still very much a work in progress. It is a manmade site that uses sand from offshore to create an artificial island. The operation continues on the west side of the U-shaped development, while on the east, workers have completed work on about 60% of the 2,800 concrete piles needed to shore the foundation of the new Venetian.

People familiar with the discussions said plans under consideration would place a Four Seasons and Intercontinental hotel in the same area as the Venetian, while Marriott, Starwood and others would be on the opposite end. The first phase of the project, which Las Vegas Sands hopes to be completed sometime in 2007, calls for about 11,500 hotel rooms.

Much of the development's success hinges on continued cooperation with the local government of Macau, which exists as a Special Administrative Region of China since Portugal returned its former colony to Chinese control in 1999. Though the master plan calls for an eventual 60,000 hotel rooms and multiple megaresorts, the government has cautioned Las Vegas Sands to "take it one step at a time," Mr. Weidner says.

Write to Peter Sanders at peter.sanders@wsj.com1



Chugs, Jay



To: pezz who wrote (60801)3/16/2005 11:41:25 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
Hello Pezz, Tonight's Adventure:

Sold my Message 21132143 CARDIOVASCULAR BIOTHERAPY finance.yahoo.com at USD 14.75-15/shr, earning 12% return in a few dozen hours. A fair return, and I left enough on the table as scrap for the others :0)

I still do not understand what the company does, and there is no need to do so now :0)

Chugs, Jay