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Strategies & Market Trends : China Warehouse- More Than Crockery -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (4518)	3/8/2005 11:24:10 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6370

Mainland's jet fleet seen expanding by 90 per year Danny Chung March 9, 2005 European airframe maker Airbus Industrie and its United States rival Boeing continue to be poles apart when it comes to estimating China's long-term demand for commercial jetliners. Airbus says in its latest global market forecast that China will need about 1,800 planes through to 2023 - 90 per year - at a cost of US$230 billion (HK$1.8 trillion). A month earlier, Boeing forecast that the mainland would need 2,293 planes over the next 20 years - or 115 per year - at a cost of US$183 billion. In Hong Kong on Tuesday, Laurent Rouaud, Airbus vice-president for market forecasts and research, said single-aisle planes seating 100 to 210 pass-engers will account for the lion's share of sales to mainland carriers. That translates as 866 planes, or 48 percent. Demand for 250-to-300 and 350-to-400-seat planes combined will be 720. Rouaud said jumbo jets will bring up the rear with 204 orders. Boeing, conversely, reckons that China will need 1,455 single-aisle planes, 469 twin-aisle planes and only 53 jumbos. The American company also said China will need 316 regional jets seating less than 100 passengers. Rouaud predicted that in the next 10 years, passenger traffic in China will increase by 9.1 percent a year. Freight traffic will increase by 9 percent a year over the same period, he said. From 2014 to 2023, passenger traffic growth in China will ease to 7.4 percent annually. Over 20 years, the average annual growth rate will be 8.2 percent. Rouaud said air traffic will expand along with China's gross domestic product (GDP) and exports. ``Passenger traffic for developing countries is highly correlated with GDP,'' he said. Rapid expansion in high-technology manufacturing in particular will create demand for Airbus's new large-capacity, long-range A380 freighters to deliver time-sensitive and high value goods, Rouaud said. ``High-tech exports have increased by 430 percent in the last five years,'' he said. He said prospects for the A380, the European firm's answer to Boeing's 747 jumbo jet, which was unveiled in January, are bright. The 14 customers which have put in orders for the plane so far plan as many as 150 weekly frequencies to and from China by 2010 for passengers and freight. General manager for customer marketing, Rick Jones, who is based in Beijing, said Airbus delivered 43 planes to China last year. He expected China to account for 20 percent of sales in future, up from the current 15 percent. danny.chung@singtaonewscorp.om thestandard.com.hk