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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (25172)	3/9/2005 9:21:54 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

The Senate assured final passage of the first major overhaul of the nation's bankruptcy laws in 27 years on Tuesday, when it took two votes that cleared the remaining political obstacles to a measure that the nation's credit and retail industries have sought for years. . . . "This bankruptcy bill is mean-spirited and unfair," said Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts. "In anything like its present form, it should and will be an embarrassment to anyone who votes for it. It's a bonanza for the credit card companies, which made $30 billion in profits last year, and a nightmare for the poorest of the poor and the weakest of the weak." . . . Critics also said the measure fails to do anything to curb abusive bankruptcy practices by wealthy families, who can create special trusts to shelter their assets, and by corrupt companies like Enron and WorldCom, which were able to find favorable bankruptcy courts and deprive many of their employees and retired employees of benefits. The Senate defeated a series of amendments proposed by Democrats that sought to address those issues. "The bill has a real bias," said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, whose proposal to close a loophole that permits wealthy people to shelter assets through a special trust was defeated last week. ============== Read the rest here: nytimes.com

To: Chispas who wrote (25172)	3/9/2005 9:38:47 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

UK Jan trade position deteriorates as non-EU shortfall worsens UPDATE Wednesday, March 9, 2005 10:19:38 AM forexstreet.com (Updating with analyst comment) LONDON (AFX ) - The UK trade position worsened in January as the deficit with non-EU countries increased quite substantially from the previous month, official figures showed The office of National Statistics said the country's global trade deficit in January rose to 5.2 bln stg against expectations of a 4.6 bln shortfall. The deficit was last wider in October December's deficit was revised up to 4.9 bln stg from 4.4 bln given a change in the seasonal adjustment, a spokeswoman for the statistics office said A more detailed look at the data shows that the UK's deficit with EU countries in January decreased to 2.2 bln stg from 2.4 bln the previous month. The narrower deficit was a result of higher exports of oil, chemicals and cars and lower imports of chemicals and intermediate goods However, the non-EU deficit rose to 3.0 bln stg from 2.5 bln, and against expectations of a 2.4 bln shortfall. Exports to non-EU countries fell across a wide range of manufactured goods, but particularly for ships and aircraft. In contrast imports from non-EU countries rose, with increases in imports of fuels other than oil, intermediate goods, ships and aircraft The surplus in trade in oil remained virtually unchanged in January from the previous month The overall balance, which also includes services, rose slightly to 3.7 bln stg from 3.5 bln The statistics office said the latest estimate of the trend suggests that the UK trade deficit is worsening RBoS economist, Ross Walker said that the change on the month in the headline figure is not large - with the deficit widening by 0.2 bln stg -- but that the large revision to December's data is worrying "The big question is whether the improvement seen over previous months have disappeared," he added The slump in exports to non-EU countries paints a "very erratic" picture. Non-EU imports were also down, perhaps suggesting some weakness in domestic consumer demand, he added

To: Chispas who wrote (25172)	3/9/2005 9:43:02 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japan Jan leading index 55.0; tops boom/bust line 1st time in 5 mths - Wednesday, March 9, 2005 8:12:13 AM afxpress.com (Adds comments from an economist, government official) TOKYO (XFN-Asia) - Japan's index of leading economic indicators stood at 55.0 for January, topping the boom-or-bust line for the first time in five months, preliminary data issued by the Cabinet Office showed A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion over the next three to six months, while a reading below 50 suggests a contraction. Last September the leading index fell below 50 for the first time in 18 months, and recently released data showed the economy shrank for three consecutive quarters through to December, slipping back into recession But other recent data showing a pickup in industrial output, exports and consumer spending has prompted many economists to predict the recession will prove shallow and short-lived, with the economy possibly already growing again The preliminary reading for January was projected at 55.0, according to the median estimate of forecasts received from 16 research houses in a poll by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. The forecasts ranged from 55.0 to 88.9 The leading index is based on 12 indicators, of which data for 10 were available for January "The latest data should be deemed an encouraging sign for the nation's economic recovery. This year we have already seen a number of positive figures, and we believe the Japanese economy has hit bottom and has started growing gradually during this quarter to March," Tomoko Fujii, senior economist at Nikko Citigroup Ltd, said. The January coincident index, which measures the current state of the economy, was put at 88.9, topping the boom-or-bust line for the first time in two months The Cabinet Office said it has now updated its basic view on the coincident index to 'seesawing' from 'bearish'. "We anticipate the February (coincident) index to stay above the 50 line," an official at the Cabinet Office. The coincident index was forecast at 100 pct, according to the median projection of 15 estimates collected by the Nihon Keizai. The forecasts ranged from 55.0 to 100 pct The coincident index for January is based on data for nine of the 11 indicators used to compute the index The lagging index for January stood at 75.0, the fifth straight month it has topped the boom-or-bust line. The preliminary reading was based on four of the six indicators used to compute the index reflecting economic conditions three months earlier

To: Chispas who wrote (25172)	3/9/2005 9:53:34 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Australia´s Westpac consumer confidence index falls sharply after rate rise Wednesday, March 9, 2005 12:13:05 AM forexstreet.com Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index falls sharply after rate rise SYDNEY (AFX) - The Westpac Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment fell 16.6 pct to 102.4 points in March, after registering 122.8 in February, Westpac said The fall was the largest ever recorded in February. It followed a raising by the Reserve Bank of Australia of its official cash rate last week by 25 basis points to 5.50 pct, causing banks to raise lending rates The survey was conducted during the past weekend Westpac said the data indicates an extraordinarily strong reaction by consumers to the rate hike, noting the average fall in confidence in May 2002 and November 2003, when rates were last raised after a period of steady rates, was only 1.1 pct It said weak December quarter gross domestic data, recording quarter-on-quarter growth of only 0.1 pct, released last Wednesday two hours after the rate rise announcement, might have impacted on sentiment "Heavily indebted consumers have sharply revised their confidence, which prior to today's reading was near record levels," Westpac said, noting that the latest reading is 10.5 pct below a year ago and only slightly above the long-term average It said consumers are likely to remain tentative for some time, even if, as it has been forecasting, markets are wrong and the RBA does not raise rates again in 2005 "Certainly the days of consistently high measures of consumer sentiment appear to have passed," Westpac said It said the depths of consumers' concerns are highlighted in the responses of mortgagees and tenants Mortgagees; confidence fell 20.2 pct while tenants who are not directly affected by higher mortgage rates lost confidence by a 12.7 pct

To: Chispas who wrote (25172)	3/9/2005 10:04:47 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Higher UK rates will damage manufacturing, BCC says Wednesday, March 9, 2005 2:45:06 PM forexstreet.com LONDON (AFX) - Higher UK interest rates will damage the fragile manufacturing sector, the British Chambers of Commerce said David Kern, an economic adviser to the business lobby group, said the latest official data on the sector still does not warrant higher borrowing costs. "We believe that higher interest rates would be extremely damaging for manufacturing, and today's figures should not be used under any circumstances as an excuse for an early increase," he said He argued that higher interest rates would depress consumer spending and threaten any export recovery, by pushing up the pound's exchange rate Data out this morning showed that manufacturing output recorded a 0.2 pct monthly rise in January, marginally stronger than market expectations The Bank of England announces its monthly interest rate decision tomorrow. No change is expected but observers believe a hike will be forthcoming in the next few months

To: Chispas who wrote (25172)	3/9/2005 10:35:04 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

MBIA's credibility takes a hit Insurer fesses up to misdeeds in controversial deal cbs.marketwatch.com

To: Chispas who wrote (25172)	3/9/2005 10:37:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Trichet says ECB ready to act on rates when necessary By Finfacts Team Mar 9, 2005, 11:14 The European Central Bank is ready to raise interest rates to prevent inflationary pressures building whenever that proves necessary, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said today. "Everybody knows that when action would be necessary, we would embark on action," Mr Trichet told a banking conference. He said inflation expectations have remained remarkably stable, and gave no indication the central bank saw a threat to its price stability goal at this moment. But Mr Trichet made clear that credibility on price stability is of the essence, and the central stands ready to defend that as needed if inflationary expectations start rising. "We express our vigilance," he said. The ECB increasingly has been laying the groundwork for an interest rate hike, warning of potential inflationary dangers from real estate prices, high credit growth and too much cheap money sloshing around the euro zone. But weak growth has stayed its hand. The ECB last week held its benchmark refinancing rate steady at 2 per cent for the 21st month in a row. Economists and traders in financial markets expect no rate increase until later this year, once growth has become more solid. Meanwhile, the ECB is stressing its vigilance on inflationary risks, a message designed to assure citizens and markets that it will not allow price pressures to get out of hand while it keeps rates low enough to support recovery. "The anchoring of medium, long and very long-term inflation expectations relies very much ... on our own credibility, our credibility over a long period of time price stability. If we were not vigilant we would lose immediately credibility," Mr Trichet told bankers and financial experts at the conference on the European financial structures after EU enlargement. finfacts.com

To: Chispas who wrote (25172)	3/9/2005 11:17:42 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Belgium´s Reynders says Germany, UK blocking deal on stability pact reform Wednesday, March 9, 2005 3:34:48 PM forexstreet.com Belgium's Reynders says Germany, UK blocking deal on stability pact reform BRUSSELS (AFX) - Belgian finance minister Didier Reynders said Germany and, to a less extent, the UK are blocking an EU deal on reforms to the stability and growth pact, even if he remains "reasonably optimistic" of an agreement in the end "What is blocking (a deal) today is the German position," Reynders told BFM-Belgique radio in reference to the euro zone heavyweight's insistence on special treatment in recognition of its reunification costs "We are very close to an agreement, ... if we succeed in convincing our German colleagues, we will have an agreement," he said the day after EU finance minister failed to agree on rewriting Europe's fiscal rulebook Reynders said work is also still needed to get the UK to agree to the proposed reforms, but he said the problem is "not insurmountable" The UK backs Germany in opposing any extension of the European Commission's powers over economic and fiscal powers The Belgian minister said he did rule out the possibility that the special meeting of euro group ministers called for March 20 would go on at least into the next day in a bid to reach a deal ahead of the leaders' gathering on March 22 and 23