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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (25185)	3/9/2005 11:26:21 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Did you see the TRIN and TRINQ this AM? People were buying this dip like mad, straight out of the gate. At 10:30 central I still show buying. TRIN at .57 and has been below 1 all day I believe. What does it take for people to want to sell? Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (25185)	3/9/2005 12:07:48 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

From Heinz on a global recession i suspect that a recession will hit BEFORE the curve has a chance to invert. imo the housing bubble is a hair away from blowing up (based on the exhaustion theory - credit isn't expanding fast enough to outpace the increase in supply), and if i'm right about this, it should take basically all the extant asset bubbles down with it, including commodities (albeit excluding gold, since gold would likely react coincidentally to a widening yield curve). admittedly though this is just a hunch still awaiting confirmation in the real world. it's not totally inconceivable that a curve inversion will occur, it just doesn't seem likely. what does seem likely is that the eventual recession will be a global event, with grave repercussions in emerging markets. that new font of relentless speculation, China, is going to have its 1929 at some point, and i suspect it'll be kicked off by a global housing crash (by the way, that is likely to start at the periphery, and spread from there, not unlike the Thai crisis becoming an Asian crisis after a while. the UK and Australia are good candidates as starting points in this case).

To: russwinter who wrote (25185)	3/9/2005 2:04:09 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

CORN: Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Wednesday, March 09, 2005 and this is a pre-closing report.? On Monday?s report I have support for May corn at 2.10 and suggested that support would hold into Thursday USDA crop report due for release at 7:30 a.m. central time.? Well, our low Tuesday was 2.11.? tomorrow?s report should give us no surprises.? The trade looks to see our ending stocks figure or carry over number to come in 50 m.b. higher than last months report of 2.010 billion bushels.? After the report and into month?s end I look for May futures to pull down to at least 2.05 as traders position themselves ahead of our March 31st planting intension report, when the trade should boast acres 1 to 3 million over a year ago.? Unless something enters the market mindset that is not here yet we will stay short. BEAN: On Monday, I said look for May beans to push into the gap area on the charts between 6.06 and 5.11.? After closing sharply lower Monday at 6.16, Tuesday saw that selling I called for down into the middle of the gap posting a 6.09 low before shorts took profits to the bank posting a higher close.? You were suppose to take profits under 6.11 as I suggested then sideline yourself Wednesday and wait for Thursday?s report results.? I called for Wednesday to see choppy two-sided trade with a lean to the upside at the close then a higher open Thursday off a friendly to bullish crop report but to sell Thursday?s opening high.? So, far today Wednesday has been choppy with trade on both sides of unchanged twice.? Now, what we do Thursday depends on what the USDA says.? If they adjust lower Brazil?s bean production from last months 63 m.m.t. to 58 or 59, we will open higher and I would sell short May and look for more long liquidation as weekend Brazilian rains look ample.? If they come in with a shocker number like 55 m.m.t. or lower, stand aside and wight for the rally to exhaust itself.? May support now lies at 6.06 then 5.72.? Resistance is 6.58. WHEAT: After falling 17 cents from last week?s high May futures hit a low Tuesday of 3.30 before profit taking came in.? Thursday?s crop report looks to push ending stocks mildly higher as the USDA adjust inventory to a slower than expected demand.? Funds continue to hold a light long positioin in the market but weak demand and a win