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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Douglas M. Benedict who wrote (28253)3/9/2005 3:15:44 PM
From: rich evans  Respond to of 110194
 
He is not the only bullish one.

Fisher Investments, Inc. !
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The global stock market upsurge we expected in 2004's back half began in earnest once the
uncertainty of US elections passed. Most major equity markets hit new bull market highs.1
We believe additional upside should spill into 2005 as momentum persists. We predict global
equities will register their third straight year of gains in 2005 with strong double-digit returns,
perhaps well in excess of 20% in the US and global markets. Thus we think equity exposure
should be maximal
In contrast to recent years, we expect 2005 to be front-half loaded and characterized by significantly
increased volatility. This forecast is consistent with historical precedent. First years of Presidents’
terms have been either negative or very positive—middle ground is rare—and more pronounced for
reelected presidents.
We are very bullish because we believe:
•Stocks are undervalued relative to bonds
•Sentiment is guarded
•Earnings expectations are ripe for upside surprise
•Exceptionally strong corporate balance sheets provide significant optimization
opportunities through re-leveraging
•Monetary and fiscal conditions globally are conducive to fast economic growth
...........



To: Douglas M. Benedict who wrote (28253)3/9/2005 3:23:13 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Respond to of 110194
 
Actually he is partially right. The boom (I would classify it as a credit induced bubble) does have considerable momentum.

HOWEVER I view this as bearish not bullish for the markets, Because the bigger the bubble the higher rates will have to rise to cool it down.